It’s that awkward in-between time on the college basketball calendar where the offseason rigamarole has begun, bids are being earned and Selection Sunday is less than a week away. That was on full display in the last 24 hours when programs like High Point and Omaha (pray for the trashcans) punched tickets to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history. Oh, and NC State axed Kevin Keatts less than a year after he led them on a magical run to the 2024 Final Four team.
What a glorious and unforgiving sport.
CBS Sports’ Isaac Trotter and Cameron Salerno dive into various topics in the sport they’re buying or selling, starting with the Wolfpack’s shocking-to-some move.
1. Buy or sell: NC State made the right decision to fire Kevin Keatts right now
Salerno: Sell. Keatts probably should’ve been fired last season. But that was before NC State went on a tear down the stretch and reached the Final Four for the first time since 1983. Sure, this season wasn’t great, but firing a coach less than 12 months after going to the Final Four is cold. Although this decision was justifiable based on his body of work, the timing is bad. Change was going to be inevitable at NC State, but it’s still surprising that it happened right now.
Trotter: Buy. From a human aspect, it feels gross to see Keatts forced to “enter the transfer portal” –– in his own words –– a year after leading NC State to the Final Four. But from a basketball perspective, this isn’t even close to a question in my mind. Last year was an unprecedented heater that might not be replicated ever again. Those nine wins in a row were special and also wildly unsustainable. The multiple years of roster-construction whiffs were the reality and felt wildly sustainable. Keatts can fairly blame the lack of NIL all he wants, but NC State’s portal evaluations last spring were not good enough, and if you watched NC State this year, it had no semblance of an identity on a nightly basis. There are numerous examples of good coaches losing March over and over again until they don’t. The inverse also has to be true. One insane Big Dance run shouldn’t cover up the same flaws that kept popping up year after year after year. I don’t blame the NC State brass for deciding that enough was enough after a year when it missed the ACC Tournament and fan support was rapidly shrinking by the day. Plus, it has an upgrade on Line One.
2. Buy or sell: Alabama can win the national title
Salerno: Buy. Alabama certainly has its flaws, but if we are talking about pure talent and the ability to win six consecutive games against quality opponents, the Crimson Tide check both boxes. Alabama struggled down the stretch last season but won four straight games to reach the first Final Four in program history. I still believe in the depth Alabama has. A key component of its Final Four run last year was unsung heroes stepping up in big moments. Pound for pound, Alabama has one of the best offenses in the country. The defense – and lack of physicality from the frontcourt — are two question marks heading into the tournament. Alabama was my preseason pick to win the title. I’m sticking with the Crimson Tide until the wheels fall off, which could happen sooner than later.
Trotter: Sell. The best version of Alabama includes a mean-muggin’ Grant Nelson. His 25-point, eight-rebound showing against Auburn was enormous and equally frustrating because that snarl just hasn’t shown up much throughout SEC play. Overall, Alabama’s big fellas are holding me back from putting it in that top tier of title contenders with the likes of Auburn, Duke or Florida. It still feels like there are times when Nate Oats and his staff are searching for the best frontcourt pairing on a game-to-game basis. The defense is good when Cliff Omoruyi is on the floor and slips when he sits. But the offense usually improves when Omoruyi is on the bench. It’s frustrating because it feels like there are plenty of times that Alabama can’t get its best five players on the floor without something going awry. Of course, Alabama can win the title because it’s battle-tested as anybody, but I wouldn’t bet on it. There are too many other teams with fewer defects at the top of the national food chain.
3. Buy or sell: North Carolina enters conference title week with the most to lose/gain
Salerno: Buy. North Carolina got a tough draw in the ACC Tournament because by getting the No. 5 seed, it won’t have an opportunity to pick up a Quad 1 win unless it beats Duke in the semifinals in Charlotte. The Tar Heels would have to win two games just to get there. UNC could then solidify a NCAA Tournament bid with a matchup against another Quad 1 opponent (Clemson or Louisville) in the ACC title game. But that’s a lot of ‘what ifs.’
I said last week that UNC’s game against Duke was a “must-win” game for its NCAA Tournament hopes, and I still stand by that. North Carolina has to pull an NC State to get into the tournament. Missing the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three years would be disastrous. UNC coach Hubert Davis will be back next season, but if his team misses the Big Dance this month, his seat will be red hot heading into the 2025-26 campaign.
Trotter: Sell. Saturday felt like North Carolina’s last-gasp Super Bowl, and Duke still found a way to survive with a double-digit victory. I just don’t see UNC getting back off the mat in the ACC Tournament after that emotional rollercoaster. I’m much more focused on teams like Baylor (more on them later), Indiana, Arkansas and a Mountain West Tournament that should be berserk. I think Xavier may have the most to gain in conference tournament week. If it earns the right to dance, Xavier has the recipe to make serious noise. Not just make the tournament but actually advance. No Big East team has had a higher net rating since Feb. 1 than Xavier.
4. Buy or sell: St. John’s will be the last team from the Big East standing in the NCAA Tournament
Salerno: Sell. This may end up becoming a cold take. I’m fine with it being just that because who doesn’t love what Rick Pitino is doing at St. John’s? The Red Storm has been one of the best stories in college basketball. They have taken on the identity of their coach. St. John’s plays hard, rebounds like crazy and plays great defense. I’m still skeptical about how far this team can go in the tournament. The 3-point shooting is concerning, and the lack of wins against Quad 1 competition is also something that makes you think twice. My take: St. John’s won’t make it out of the first weekend.
Trotter: Buy. I certainly love what Xavier is cooking up these days, but the St. John’s defense is still the best unit of any Big East club. Better than Creighton’s brilliant offense. Better than Marquette’s pressure defense. Better than UConn’s beautiful offensive system. I think the Johnnies have what it takes to advance in March because they constantly win the shot-volume game, they’re highly switchable, the perimeter size and athleticism is overwhelming and Rick Pitino is one of the elite coaches on the planet.
5. Buy or sell: Duke should be the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament
Salerno: Sell. But … There is an argument for it. Auburn’s overall resume is better than Duke’s, and the Blue Devils own the head-to-head advantage. Still, I have a hard time believing the committee would put Duke as the No. 1 overall seed just because of what Auburn did in SEC play against that level of competition. I thought Auburn locked up the No. 1 overall seed following a win over Alabama last month. Even after last weekend’s loss to the Crimson Tide, I would still have Auburn firmly No. 1. Now, if Duke wins the ACC Tournament and Auburn has an early exit in its conference tournament, there may be a discussion about who should be the No. 1 overall seed this weekend. For now, Auburn gets the nod.
Trotter: Sell. Auburn’s resume metrics are incredible. Eight Quad 1A wins are absurd, and it sits No. 1 in the nation in Wins Above Bubble. The predictive metrics lean toward Duke, and that’s fine, but Auburn is the worthy top seed overall. A rematch in San Antonio would be sizzling.
6. Buy or sell: Baylor will make the NCAA Tournament
Salerno: Buy. There will be a level of urgency for Baylor at the Big 12 Tournament this week. The Bears are on the bubble as one of the “Last Four In,” and an early exit in the conference tournament will cause Scott Drew’s squad to sweat next weekend. Baylor will face the winner of Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State in the second round of the Big 12 Tournament. The Bears need to win that matchup and potentially beat Texas Tech to feel comfortable. Still, a win in the first round will probably be enough unless there are numerous bid stealers during the next week.
Trotter: Buy. We’ll see how the chase for bid-stealers coalesces, but Drake over Bradley in the Missouri Valley Conference championship game was a big one for bubblicious teams like Baylor. At the end of the day, I like Baylor’s resume more than an Ohio State or even Arkansas. Baylor will be sweating on Selection Sunday, but I think Scott Drew’s club ultimately gets in the field relatively safely if it avoids losing in its Big 12 Tournament opener.
More: Tracking automatic bids as Drake, High Point, Lipscomb make Big Dance
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