Cognizant Classic Odds, Picks and Best Bets 2026: Nicolai Hojgaard Flourishes in Florida

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Last updated: Monday, February 23 at 4:00 p.m. ET.

⛳ Cognizant Classic: Key takeaways

• Best early bet: Nicolai Hojgaard to win (+2500) – Has case to be betting favorite with pair of Top 5s across past three events and elite ball-striking numbers.

• Best early value: Sam Ryder to win (+10000) – Two career Top 10s at PGA National and third in this field in both true strokes gained on approaches and putting in 2026.

• Course: The Champion Course at PGA National Resort has water in play on 15 of 18 holes and is famous for the “Bear Trap” (holes 15-17).

• Weather: Early forecasts call for periodic rain and potential thunderstorms on Friday, plus windy playing conditions throughout the tournament.

• Expected cut: Standard PGA Tour rules apply for this full-field event. The Top 65 and ties will advance to the weekend. The cut line has hovered around +1 or +2 historically before dropping to -5 in 2025 due to soft conditions.

Cognizant Classic odds: favorites & full field

The Cognizant Classic runs February 26 to March 1 at the Champion Course. Below are the latest outright odds, followed by the picks and market-by-market best bets we like this week.

Odds as of Monday, February 23 at 4:00 p.m ET.

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Check out the full Cognizant Classic field here.

Best bets card

• Outright: Nicolai Hojgaard (+2500): Has a strong case to be the betting favorite given his elite statistical profile and current form with two Top 5s in past three events.

* Adam Scott (+2200) was one of my outright bets Monday morning, but he’s withdrawn from the tournament.

Course breakdown: What wins at the Champion Course?

Notorious for being one of the toughest stops on the PGA Tour, the Champion Course requires precision because of its small landing areas and exposure to wind. Water is also in play on 15 of the 18 holes, which means danger lurks on nearly every shot.

The Tom Fazio design is a 7,223-yard Par 71 with three Par 5s, large greens surfaces featuring Tifeagle Bermudagrass, and the highlighted “Bear Trap,” one of the most demanding three-hole stretches on the PGA Tour circuit.

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Talking about the “Bear Trap,” course redesigner Jack Nicklaus said, “It should all be won or lost here. It’s not about length, it’s about precision. It’s about guts. It’s all about what do you have in your chest that you can finish those holes.”

Wet conditions and overseeding the fairways and rough with rye grass helped scoring in 2025 because the track wasn’t as firm or fast.

Still, players rarely have the luxury of having wedges in hand. The most common approach distances are between 125 and 200 yards, with PGA National a true second-shot track. Additionally, players often club down from driver on several tees to leave longer approaches into the large greens.

• Water hazards in play on 15 of 18 holes

• Second-shot course emphasizing precision on approaches

• Notorious “Bear Trap” a true round wrecker

• Large Bermudagrass greens

• Bogey avoidance critical to success

Players to watch

• Shane Lowry: On a 2nd-T5-T4-T11 heater at the Champions Course with true strokes gained on approaches in all four trips.

• Keith Mitchell: The 2019 winner also carded T9 results in 2022 and 2024. He’s also never lost true strokes putting in seven trips to the track.

• Brooks Koepka: Putter has ruined excellent ball-striking in consecutive events, and the Florida native finished T2 here in 2019.

Key stats & player profiles to target

• True strokes gained tee-to-green

• Scrambling percentage and true strokes gained around-the-green

• Approaches from 150-175 and 175-200 yards

• Birdie or better percentage

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Players to watch

• Nicolai Hojgaard: Sixth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green across his past six events, while ranking first in bogey avoidance and fifth in adjusting scoring average to start the PGA Tour season.

• Ryan Gerard: Ranks 10th in both bogey avoidance and adjusted scoring average this PGA Tour season, while also pacing this field in true strokes gained total.

Outright picks: winners to bet

Pick 1: Nicolai Hojgaard to win (+2500)

Nicolai Hojgaard is sixth in this field in true strokes gained tee-to-green across his past six tournaments, while ranking first in bogey avoidance and fifth in adjusting scoring average to start the 2026 PGA Tour season.

Course Fit: Third trip to the track with a T18 in 2025
Recent Form: Pair of Top 5s in past three events
Market Value: Has a case to be the betting favorite

Risk: Still chasing down first PGA Tour win.

* Adam Scott to win (+2200) was an early pick Monday morning, but he has withdrawn from the tournament.

Odds movement & market notes

With the tournament bookended by Signature Events, and the two of the three top betting favorites withdrawing on Monday, there potential for significant moves in the Cognizant odds remains this week. Shane Lowry has the shortest odds to win the tournament at +1600 at BetMGM following Ben Griffin, Jacob Bridgeman and Adam Scott all withdrawing.

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The field at PGA National is solid, but it now also lacks even more of the PGA Tour’s best players. A long shot of +10000 odds or higher has also won three of the past four years, and interestingly, defending champion Joe Highsmith is +20000 to win at BetMGM to open the week.

Additionally, 2024 champ Austin Eckroat is +7000.

I’m expecting to see Will Zalatoris be a popular target for bettors, and his odds to shorten from +4000. Other golfers with the potential to shorten are Ryan Gerard (+2200), and Michael Thorbjornsen (+2800).

How to watch & tee times (quick links)

How to watch:

• Thursday-Friday: 2:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. (Golf Channel)

• Saturday: 1:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. (Golf Channel); 3:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)

• Sunday: 1:00 p.m. – 3:00 p.m. (Golf Channel); 3:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)

Tee times:

Round 1 and 2 tee times should be released on the official PGA Tour website on Tuesday, February 24.

Cognizant Classic betting FAQ

When is the 2026 Cognizant Classic?

The 2026 edition of the Cognizant Classic is Thursday, February 26, to Sunday, March 1.

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Where is the 2026 Cognizant Classic being played?

The 2026 Cognizant Classic is being played at The PGA National Resort (The Champion Course) in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.

What is the “Florida Swing?”

The Cognizant Classic serves as the traditional opening event and first stop of the “Florida Swing,” a series of tournaments played on the state’s challenging Bermudagrass courses.

Who is the 2026 Cognizant Classic favorite?

After three-time PGA Tour winner Ben Griffin (+1400) withdrew from the tournament on Monday, February 23, the betting favorite to win the 2026 Cognizant Classic is Shane Lowry (+1600).

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What are the Cognizant Classic FRL markets?

First Round Leader (FRL) markets center around which player(s) will be in the lead following the first 18 holes of the tournament. 

How do Cognizant Classic matchup bets work?

When betting Cognizant Classic matchups, you’re selecting which golfer will score better between the two players listed in that specific market. There are 18-hole, single-round matchups, in addition to tournament-long, 72-hole matchups.

What is the Cognizant Classic cut line?

Standard PGA Tour rules apply for this full-field event. The Top 65 and ties will advance to the weekend. The cut line has hovered around +1 or +2 historically before dropping to -5 in 2025 due to soft conditions.

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Are Cognizant Classic odds the same across all sportsbooks?

You’ll see slight variations in odds across sportsbooks for the Cognizant Classic; it’s always good practice to check multiple sports betting sites for the best odds.

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