While I believe that many are very satisfied with what Chaim Bloom has accomplished with his many roster moves during the offseason, we’re about to begin the 2026 season with some fear and trepidation about how competitive or not the St. Louis Cardinals will be. Knowing what we know now, what do you think the St. Louis Cardinals win-loss record will be for 2026?
Before I share my guess, let’s look at what the latest professional projections say about the 2026 St. Louis Cardinals team. According to a share a week and a half ago by Fangraphs, the latest ZiPS projections say the St. Louis Cardinals will finish 4th in the National League Central with a record of 77-85 only 3 games ahead of the Pittsburgh Pirates. FanDuel and other Vegas odds say the St. Louis Cardinals are only a 70 to 71 win team. Bernie Miklasz shared what several other betting sites were predicting, but this was a week and a half ago and all of these predictions were posted before the Brendan Donovan trade.
I have a difficult time separating my emotions from my mind when it comes to trying to nail down what the St. Louis Cardinals 2026 record will be. My heart is thrilled that the team has finally stopped settling for mediocrity and made big changes to insure the St. Louis Cardinals will be perennial serious contenders at some point in the future, but my mind has to realistically accept the fact that we’re not built to win this year. My prediction is a 76-86 St. Louis Cardinals team that will be fortunate to finish above the Pittsburgh Pirates. I think that will look optimistic once the new projections are done post-Brendan Donovan trade, but I’m overall bullish on this team.
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I do think there is a scenario (albeit an unlikely one) where the St. Louis Cardinals surprise everyone and become a .500 or better team this season, but that involves a lot of daydreaming. If Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman both wake up and live up to their potential, this could get interesting. JJ Wetherholt would need to have the type of season where he’s a legitimate rookie of the year candidate. We would need Michael McGreevy and Matthew Liberatore to go next level and the Cardinals bullpen to become something it doesn’t appear to be on paper. This daydream also requires Masyn Winn to remain fully healthy and add impressive offensive pop to his gold glove defense. Alec Burleson and Ivan Herrera would also need to backup strong 2025 showings and remain healthy. If all of those elements line up, the St. Louis Cardinals could be much more than the predictions say they will be in 2026, but I think it’s best to embrace what looks like our reality for the next couple of years and that’s not what my heart hopes will happen.
We can revisit this once the St. Louis Cardinals break camp after Spring Training, but as of today, what is your guess of what the St. Louis Cardinals win-loss record will be in 2026 and how do you think they’ll rank in the National League Central?
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