If you have been watching the Nationals at all this spring, you would know that the offense has struggled. When you look at the box scores, most of the players OPS numbers begin with a 4, 5 or 6. The Nats hit just .194 with a .592 OPS this spring. As the team heads into the season, how concerned should we be?
Personally, I am moderately concerned, but not totally panicked yet. It is a bit alarming to see the struggles of guys like Dylan Crews and James Wood, but again, it is still Spring Training. The new regime is teaching these players a lot of new things, and clearly, it has been easier for the pitchers to translate those teachings into the game.
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The pitching staff is the reason the Nats still finished this spring with a record above .500. The Nats were 29th in scoring this spring, averaging 3.5 runs per game. However, they only allowed 3.7 per game, which was 4th. The slate is clean when the regular season begins, but I would not be surprised if the pitchers were ahead of the hitters early on.
It is a lot easier for a pitcher to add a pitch or tweak their mechanics than it is for a hitter to change things up. Pitching has become so scientific, while hitting is still more of an art. Some changes that sound good on paper could have adverse effects. Even if they do, it could sometimes be worth it to stick with those tweaks for a while to see if things click. Clearly, the transition to a new style of hitting has not been smooth so far.
For years, the Nats have been at or near the top of the league in ground ball rate, and that is something the new regime wants to change. However, trying to lift the ball comes with some tradeoffs like more pop ups and a bit more whiff. Finding a balance will be important for this team. This new regime also seems willing to experiment until they find the right combination.
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One thing that Blake Butera said that I found interesting was that he thinks the offense will improve as they see guys more. He talked about how it can be tough to “fly blind” when you keep seeing different pitchers in Spring Training. Hopefully the Nats will be able to make those sorts of adjustments.
This struggling Nats offense will be challenged right off the bat with series against the Cubs, Phillies and Dodgers. The Phillies and Dodgers in particular have very strong staffs that will happily feast on a lineup trying to find an identity. Now that Spring Training is over, it is time to lock in. Maybe some hitters should go back to what works best for them, at least in the short term. The two exhibitions against the O’s were not pretty offensively. The Nats better be ready because they will be challenged by some high end arms to start the season.
A couple weeks ago I talked about the Nats offensive concerns. I attributed a lot of the struggles to guys just getting going, but as we enter the regular season, I am a little worried. The Nats offense last year was not great by any means, but they showed some promise, especially in the first half. It has been really ugly so far this spring.
I would not be surprised if the trend of the pitching being better than the hitting continues into the season. Obviously the gap will not be as extreme, but I believe the pitchers will be ahead of the hitters. They seem to have responded to the new coaching better.
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Hopefully this is all Spring Training noise and the offense can start the year hot. However, I do not think the bad offense is totally fluky. There are some real growing pains here. I hope things start to click as Matt Borgschutle gets more time with the guys because it has not been pretty so far.
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