The NHL’s salary cap is on the rise. But when more cap space is available, players and their agents adjust their expectations accordingly. So even if the ceiling jumps higher than the initial projection of $92.4 million for the 2025-26 season, that likely won’t make it any easier for GMs to come to terms with their top arbitration-eligible restricted free agents.
Last season, players in that category came to terms with a range of different outcomes. After filing for arbitration, Martin Necas settled on a two-year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes that will walk him to free agency at age 27, then stormed out of the gate as one of the NHL’s top scorers. Meanwhile, Jeremy Swayman elected not to file, which created an impasse that lasted until the eve of the regular season before he and the Boston Bruins settled on an eight-year pact at $8.25 million per season.
Based on their current salaries, this year’s top four arbitration-eligible RFAs are all defensemen of similar ages, and three of them play in the state of New York. All four were first-round draft picks, and all are in the final year of short-term bridge contracts that saved their teams some money during the flat-cap years but could cost them now.
Just a little earlier, Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar and Adam Fox were all signed to longer-term deals out of their entry-level contracts — and have all gone on to win Norris Trophies.
Will we see any of these four get extended during this season — or traded if it looks like the financial expectations for both sides are unlikely to align?
Here’s a look at where each one currently stands:
Noah Dobson – New York Islanders – Year 3 of 3 at $4 million AAV
Selected 12th overall in 2018, Dobson’s a big righty who turns 25 in January. Dobson has hit double-digits in goals in all three of his full NHL seasons to date. He broke out with 70 points in 2023-24 while logging 24:31 a game, earning a handful of Norris Trophy votes.
This season, he’s still logging over 24 minutes a game. And according to Natural Stat Trick, his possession numbers are better than ever. At 5-on-5, he’s controlling 54.77 percent of expected goals and over 62 percent of high-danger goals. His offensive production is down, with just 19 points in 34 games, and the Isles’ 32nd-ranked power play is a big part of that. Dobson is shooting more than ever and picked up his fifth of the year against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday.
Evan Bouchard – Edmonton Oilers – Year 2 of 2 at $3.9 million AAV
When Evan Bouchard took over the Oilers’ top power-play unit after Tyson Barrie was moved at the 2023 trade deadline, his ‘Bouch Bomb’ of a point shot immediately entered the hockey lexicon.
Bouchard’s 82 points last season were fourth among all defensemen and included 18 goals, and he raised his game when going got tough in the playoffs, with six goals and 32 points in 25 games.
Selected two spots above Dobson at No. 10 in 2018, Bouchard is the oldest of the four players on this list, having turned 25 in October. He’s off to a slower start with 25 points in 33 games and his expected goals share at 5-on-5 has dropped a bit from last season, although it’s still an outstanding 58.84 percent.
The Oilers are now rolling, with an 8-2-0 record in their last 10 games, so Bouchard’s numbers are likely on their way up. If he isn’t extended by the end of the season, his new contract could occupy nearly as much bandwidth as a new deal for Connor McDavid in Oil Country.
K’Andre Miller – New York Rangers – Year 2 of 2 at $3.872 million AAV
Amid all the drama that has swirled around the Rangers, Chris Drury was able to ink both Alexis Lafreniere and Igor Shesterkin to new long-term deals. That leaves K’Andre Miller as the team’s last major contract domino.
Or, will Miller find himself a new home soon, as Drury continues to shake up the chemistry of his dysfunctional group?
Drafted 10 spots behind Dobson at No. 22 in 2018, Miller also turns 25 in January. His role has been a little more muted, averaging just north of 21 minutes a game and peaking at 30 points last season. But before he suffered an upper-body injury on Dec. 11, Miller had exceeded 50 percent of expected goals controlled at 5-on-5 for the first time in his career.
Bowen Byram – Buffalo Sabres – Year 2 of 2 at $3.85 million AAV
The youngest of the four players on this list, Byram is arguably the most intriguing.
He’s the only one who already has a Stanley Cup, picking up nine points in 20 playoff games with the Colorado Avalanche in 2021-22.
He was the highest pick, selected fourth overall in 2019. He’s the youngest as he doesn’t turn 24 until next June. And now that he has put his early-career injury issues behind him (knock on wood), Byram has arguably the most untapped upside of the four players on this list.
Even while the Buffalo Sabres can’t buy a win, Byram’s 18 points in 34 games have him tracking for a career high, and he’s up to more than 23 minutes a game. On a struggling team, he boasts an expected goals share of 47.07 percent at 5-on-5, an improvement of more than six points from his 18-game showing with the Sabres last season.
Like Miller, Byram is a lefty. At 205 pounds, he’s also second-heaviest on the list behind Miller (210 pounds), even though he’s the shortest of the four at 6-foot-1.
As the losses continue to pile up in Buffalo, the vultures are circling to see if they can pry Byram away from the Sabres roster. If another GM is able to acquire him, he’s going to have to open his wallet wide to keep him.
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