It’s been a great time to be in the Big Ten these last few years. While the conference has long been the leader in the race to accrue television revenue thanks to the transfer portal and NIL era, we’ve seen those financial advantages pay off on the field.
The most immediate change has been consecutive national titles for the conference, but it doesn’t stop with Michigan and Ohio State. The league has also seen the teams generally considered afterthoughts take a leap forward as well. Suddenly, Indiana is a football power, coming off a playoff appearance and ranked in the top 20 of both major polls. And the Hoosiers aren’t even the highest-ranked team of the league’s secondary tiers! Illinois, fresh off a 10-win season, is ranked No. 12, the highest it’s been in a preseason poll since 1990.
And I haven’t even mentioned the reigning conference champion, Oregon, which joined the league last year and decided to run through the regular season undefeated. The team the Ducks beat in the Big Ten Championship, Penn State, returns a large chunk of the roster that reached the College Football Playoff semifinals last year and enters the season at No. 2 in the AP Top 25.
The combination of new blood, new money and new quarterbacks around the league has the Big Ten feeling like it’s a more wide-open race than conference aficionados are used to. The uncertainty is reflected in the predictions of our panel of experts. While we generally agree on who the top two teams in the league will be, after that, it’s anybody’s guess.
That’s exactly what this is — a guess. At this time a year ago, nobody on our panel had Illinois finishing higher than ninth in the league. Indiana’s peak was 11th. We are going to get a lot wrong here, and you know what? It’s great. Knowing the outcomes before the season starts has never been a good time.
Most overrated team
Michigan: If you want to take the glass half-full approach with Michigan, you point to last year’s strong finish with wins over Ohio State and Alabama, and then adding the No. 1 overall recruit in five-star QB Bryce Underwood. All those things are true and reason to be more bullish on the Wolverines’ prospects in 2025, but I’m not putting a team relying on a QB who has never thrown a collegiate pass in the top 15 as the AP Top 25 poll did. The defense should be very good and the offense improved, but Michigan feels a year away from being back amongst the Big Ten’s elite. — John Talty
USC: Maybe this is the year USC gets it act together on the field and looks more like the team that won 11 games in Lincoln Riley’s first season. Or maybe this is a team that should’ve been more aggressive in the transfer portal and gone after an upgrade at QB. I understand the need to improve the defense, but my gut tells me the Trojans cut off their nose to spite their face this offseason. At a time when it feels like everybody in the Big Ten’s second tier is taking a step forward, USC may be heading the wrong direction. — Tom Fornelli
Oregon: I’m a big believer in Dan Lanning as one of the top coaches in the country, but I struggle to place the Ducks within the top tier of the conference with only one returning starter on offense. Oregon is exiting an incredible run of the most experienced quarterbacks in the sport’s history (Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel), and the loss of that veteran presence at both quarterback and across the offense at the skill positions is going to be difficult to replicate, even with great depth and some notable additions from the portal (Tulane running back Makhi Hughes is the real deal). Oregon is not going to fall off the map, but the Ducks may struggle early in the year and on the road in big environments. That defense will be stellar, especially if Matayo Uiagalelei takes another step forward, and that will keep them as a borderline contender. This roster is a year away from contending for the Big Ten title again. — Brandon Marcello (also Shehan Jeyarajah)
Nebraska: The middle pack of the Big Ten is so close that it’s tough to declare too much difference, because we know only a couple of plays separate those teams that go 6-3 from the ones that go 4-5 in conference play. I think Nebraska might be uniquely positioned to be on the short end of those coin-flip games, taking a slight step back on defense even as they probably take a step forward on offense with another year of Dylan Raiola and Dana Holgorsen working together. The first two years of the Matt Rhule era at Nebraska have not included a lot of shootouts, but that might be what’s in store this season, and I’m not sure that’s a fit for how the Cornhuskers want to win. — Chip Patterson
Indiana: That overrated label is not to say Indiana will fall off a cliff. There’s a reasonably high floor that comes with a soft schedule and Curt Cignetti as coach. But many are still picking Indiana as a dark horse conference contender and a legit top 20 team. I can’t go that far when the Hoosiers return only eight starters. History also plays a part in this selection. Indiana has won double-digit games just one time in its 127-year history, and that was last year! It’d be a historic anomaly if there wasn’t a major drop off for the Hoosiers in 2025. They’re going to comfortably make a bowl but come back to earth a little bit in the win-loss column. — Chris Hummer (also David Cobb, Brad Crawford)
Illinois: Scratching the surface at Illinois’ close shaves last season and somewhat lucky results are why I don’t think this team gets to last year’s 10-win heights. The Illini will be solid and will absolutely not drop off a cliff back to the ignominy the football program has usually languished in, but losing offensive playmakers is going to hurt this squad despite the fact that pretty much everyone else returns. Duke and Indiana will be one-score spread games, as will USC. Can the Illini eke those out? If they can, a special season could be on the table. If they can’t, a backslide is in order. — Richard Johnson
Most underrated team
Iowa: The Hawkeyes have become almost a meme for their offensive ineptitude in recent years, but the unit took a meaningful step forward under coordinator Tim Lester. Now, South Dakota State transfer QB Mark Gronowski gives Iowa its most talented signal-caller since at least C.J. Beathard. If the unit can be a league average offense, the upside is there for Iowa to once again push toward 10 wins and Big Ten title game contention. — Jeyarajah (also Fornelli, Talty)
USC: Year 1 of Big Ten life did not deliver a record fitting for the USC standard, but the Trojans did not look out-classed in their debut run through a new landscape. All but one of the five losses were one-score defeats, and offseason staffing upgrades have pointed to more building in the right direction when it comes to modernization of a tradition-rich program. The fact that Lincoln Riley did not seek out a replacement for Jayden Maiava suggests that the player who went 3-1 as a starter could be set for a breakout season this fall. This is probably not a national title contender, but when it comes to exceeding the win total expectations and flirting with College Football Playoff contention, the Trojans are a great value bet. — Patterson
Illinois: Call me crazy, but Illinois might have one of the nation’s five best offensive lines in the country. Couple that with a load of returning veterans, an offense that does things differently than most in the conference and a coach who was born to win in the Big Ten, and I’ve got Illinois as perhaps the third-best team in the conference this season. The Illini were one win away from a CFP spot last season. I can see them in that spot again this year, if not better, which places them in the top 10 at the end of the season. — Marcello
Indiana: Indiana won’t be sneaking up on anyone, and It’s doubtful it’ll return to the College Football Playoff, but the Hoosiers are not just going to regress to the 5-7 program they’ve pretty much always been (or worse). Curt Cignetti added one of the best transfer quarterbacks in Fernando Mendoza last winter, and center Pat Coogan as well as tackle Zen Michalski lead an offense that should remain potent. This is a new Indiana … sleep on them at your own peril. — Johnson
Washington: Washington’s offense is primed for a Year 2 takeoff under Jedd Fisch as high-ceiling sophomore Demond Williams takes over the full-time quarterback job. Arizona improved its yardage output by more than 100 yards per contest from Fisch’s first season there to his second, and Williams is the perfect QB to spearhead a similar jump for the Huskies. He’s a true dual-threat player and is joined by 1,000-yard rusher Jonah Coleman. UW gets Ohio State, Illinois and Oregon at home and will use its enhanced offensive firepower to pull an upset on one of them to finish higher than expected in the league standings. — Cobb (also Hummer)
Nebraska: The freshman-to-sophomore transition will be memorable for Dylan Raiola now that he’s the centerpiece of an offense that will cater to his skill set. With Dana Holgorsen calling the plays, Raiola should be considerably more comfortable moving from the terminology-heavy and expansive personnel packages that Nebraska’s previous OC brought to the field. Expect the Huskers to start the season 3-0 and really climb if they’re able to beat Michigan at home in Week 4. — Crawford
Bold predictions
- Tom Fornelli: The Big Ten will be a stronger conference from top to bottom than it has been in either of the last two seasons, but because of this, it will only get three teams into the College Football Playoff. The gap between the fourth- and 10th-best teams is narrow enough that it’ll cause these schools to eat each other alive the same way the SEC’s second tier did in 2024.
- Chip Patterson: Nico Iamaleava pushes UCLA to a bowl bid. It might take a couple weeks (and some tough love courtesy of Utah’s defense), but I’m betting that Nico has an objectively successful season as the Bruins’ quarterback. It’s not just the tools and ceiling that Iamaleava possesses but also the ability to get in sync with a new coordinator in Tino Sunseri, who has been a part of productive offenses at multiple levels and is expected to be a plus-value add to Deshaun Foster’s program.
- Brandon Marcello: Illinois surprises with one of the five best lines in the country, and Bret Bielema rides a run-heavy attack to win five games by single digits with a few late-game drives by veteran quarterback Luke Altmyer. Meanwhile, Oregon struggles to pick up steam offensively with a new quarterback early in the season, but an easy schedule builds some confidence before losses to Penn State and Indiana tug the Ducks out of the Big Ten race.
- John Talty: It won’t go over well in SEC country, but Indiana sneaks into the playoff again. The schedule isn’t as easy as last season, but it is still manageable enough for the Hoosiers to make the cut again if they can win at least two out of three in a critical three-game stretch against Illinois, Iowa and Oregon. I like transfer QB Fernando Mendoza to upgrade the offense, the defense should still be very good under DC Bryant Haines and the team will always play hard under Curt Cignetti.
- Richard Johnson: Fernando Mendoza leads the Big Ten in passing. The steal of the transfer portal, Mendoza immediately reestablishes the Hoosiers as a Big Ten dark horse. He’s behind an offensive line that reloads from last year with Pat Coogan at center and Zen Michalski and will certainly be a draft darling next April.
- Shehan Jeyarajah: Jeremiah Smith may be the best player in college football, but he won’t lead the Big Ten in receiving yards. The Buckeyes’ passing offense will be too inconsistent, and too much resource will be spent trying to keep him out of the end zone. USC’s JaKobi Lane, Penn State’s Trebor Pena and Washington’s Denzel Boston all rank among players who have a shot to knock Smith off his perch.
- David Cobb: The Big Ten will produce the winner of the Broyles Award, which goes to the nation’s top assistant coach. Penn State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein and Ohio State offensive coordinator Brian Hartline are prime candidates.
- Brad Crawford: Penn State avenges its lone regular-season loss against Ohio State with a victory over the Buckeyes in the conference title game, which will mark the reigning national champion’s second setback (Texas in the opener). Nebraska enjoys its best season in years thanks to a much-improved Dylan Raiola courtesy of Dana Holgorsen’s expertise in the passing game for the Huskers.
- Chris Hummer: Penn State gets it done in Columbus on Nov. 1. That’s been the Nittany Lions’ bugaboo for almost a decade now, and this is the Penn State team that manages to beat the Buckeyes.
Big Ten predicted order of finish
Big Ten champion
Odds to win Big Ten below via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Penn State (+210): The Nittany Lions have a common tie to the 2023 Michigan and 2024 Ohio State title teams in that there is a core group of veterans who have all doubled down on the commitment to make a run at the game’s ultimate goal. Guys that could have been Day 3 picks choosing instead to chase a championship and the NFL success that would come with that are setting the tone in Happy Valley, knowing they were just a few plays away from the national championship game a year ago. These teams that acknowledge and accept the pressure of expectations sometimes are the ones most prepared to step up and deliver, and that’s exactly what I’m looking for from a group that has all the pieces to put together the best season of the modern era for Penn State football. — Patterson (also Marcello, Cobb, Crawford, Hummer)
Ohio State (+190): Ohio State won the national title last season, yet it didn’t even qualify for the conference title game. I don’t know if they’ll repeat as national champions, but the four-year conference title drought will end. Yes, there are plenty of questions about who will do what for this team, but what isn’t in question is the level of talent on the roster. It’s one of the most talented teams in the country, and year in and year out, that pays dividends on the field. — Fornelli (also Talty, Jeyarajah)
Oregon (+420): Oregon is somehow flying under the radar after spending much of last year as the No. 1 team in the country. Consider this: Oregon took an already stacked roster and added to it the best left tackle (Isaiah World), safety (Dylan Thieneman) one of the best guards (Emmanuel Pregnon) and running backs (Makhi Hughes). Adding the best portal pieces to an already great roster is how Ohio State got over the hump last season, can Oregon do the same? I’m bullish. — Johnson
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