Big 12 commissioner says conference will produce multiple CFP bids in 2025, can the league back up big claim?

FRISCO, Texas — Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark has a history of speaking things into existence during his tenure with the league. And at his annual address at Big 12 Media Days, he did not shy away from setting big expectations. 

Last season, the Big 12 was the only power league to send only one team into the expanded College Football Playoff field. According to Yormark, that won’t happen again. 

“I believe we will be the deepest football conference in America,” Yormark said. “No league offers the competitive balance that we do. … I fully expect the Big 12 to earn multiple College Football Playoff bids this year and to show once again that we can compete.” 

Several Big 12 teams competed for CFP spots at the end of the year, but conference champion Arizona State was the only team to get in at No. 12. No. 17 BYU, No. 18 Iowa State and No. 23 Colorado were other ranked teams from the conference. The Cougars actually beat CFP team SMU on its own field in nonconference play to finish with an identical 11 wins, but the committee snubbed them. 

In general, the committee has not always treated the Big 12 with respect. The first CFP in 2014 saw Baylor and TCU nudged out at No. 5 and 6 in the rankings, missing the four-team field. TCU and Cincinnati are the only teams from the current crop to earn a trip to the four-team playoff, while Arizona State needed the 12-team field to get in as an auto-bid. 

Hanging over the conference is the negotiations for the future format of the College Football Playoff. The SEC and Big Ten have proposed a model that would guarantee four auto-bids for each of them, two for the Big 12 and ACC and one from the Group of Five as part of a 16-team field. It would codify the system as a multi-bid league, but give a permanent leg up to the SEC and Big Ten. Both the Big 12 and ACC have rebuffed the chance. 

“We want to earn it on the field,” Yormark said. “It might not be the best solution today for the Big 12, but long term, knowing the progress we’re making, the investments we’re making, it’s the right format for us.” 

Historical context

Since realignment in 2023, continuing Big 12 teams have had a rough time establishing themselves in the new-look conference. In fact, Arizona State is the only school now in the conference to earn a top-12 ranking in the past two seasons. However, history has been on the Big 12’s side. 

Between 2019-22, there were multiple current members of the Big 12 in the top 12 of every final College Football Playoff Rankings. The 2021 season featured four Big 12 teams in the top 11: No. 4 Cincinnati, No. 7 Baylor, No. 9 Oklahoma State and No. 11 BYU. If the field expands to 16 teams, it pushes the streak of multiple teams back to 2016. 

The famous 2014 season was marked by Baylor and TCU essentially splitting the vote and costing themselves a spot in the CFP. Had the 12-team playoff existed, both would have made it, along with No. 11 Kansas State. No. 10 Arizona and No. 15 Arizona State. 

Projecting back to 2014, 13 of the 16 Big 12 members would have made a 16-team playoff. That matches the same number as the SEC and is more than the Big Ten (11) and ACC (9) despite fewer members. 

Granted, modern realignment makes comparing playoff fields and rankings far more difficult. Cincinnati and UCF reached top 10 rankings in non-power conferences, for example. Teams like Utah and Kansas State likely would have impacted each other’s rankings if they were in the same conferences. 

Regardless, most of the teams in the Big 12 have shown they capable of competing on the national stage. Yormark is hoping a few programs rise toward the top over the next few years. 

“I think parity matters, but I think ultimately over time — and hopefully it’s sooner than later — there’ll be a couple of our schools that will emerge,” Yormark said. “Elite schools that are always part of the conversations at the highest levels and that’s what we’re working towards.” 

CFP odds for every Big 12 team 

Via DraftKings Sportsbook

Looking at now

Last season, Arizona State was picked No. 16 in the Big 12 preseason media poll. It went on to win the league. After the whiff, the league decided to get rid of the poll entirely because coaches felt it negatively impacted perception of their members, and ultimately nudged Arizona State and BYU down the rankings. Oklahoma State and Utah’s massively disappointing seasons also ended up being a black mark against the conference. 

We can quibble about whether the preseason poll mattered more than Arizona State losing to Texas Tech and Cincinnati early, but the league should be positioned better in 2025 regardless. In a composite of six media-created offseason rankings, both No. 11 Arizona State and No. 12 BYU are projected on the door of the College Football Playoff. 

Not far down the list, No. 17 Kansas State, No. 18 Iowa State and No. 22 Texas Tech are within striking distance. Baylor and TCU also received placements in multiple polls. That’s at least seven teams with serious playoff potential entering the year. 

For comparison, Utah was the only team to start last year in the top 15 of the AP Top 25. When it faltered, there were no standard-bearers left. Only five teams were ranked among the top 30 vote getters in the preseason poll. The league also boasts four of the top 12 teams nationally in returning production.

Granted, the path will never be easy for the Big 12, which comes into the year without a likely top-10 team. Lacking a tentpole team makes the climb up the polls more difficult for everyone. At the top of the list of concerns? No current Big 12 team has won a national championship in the BCS or CFP era. The most recent recognized national championship in the league came in 1990 from Colorado. To put into context how ancient that history it is, the crown was shared with Georgia Tech. 

Additionally, the nine-game conference schedule makes producing multiple one-loss teams more difficult. The Big 12 also needs a little more luck than last season, when injuries doomed top contenders Arizona State and Iowa State in tight losses to inferior opponents. The schedule just needs to fall right. 

Still, Yormark saw enough promise to make his big College Football playoff claim. Now, his teams have to step up to the challenge.