This venue cannot be beaten with shear power alone. It demands a level of precision and course management that favors accuracy over distance. Here’s who Rick Gehman thinks fits the bill.
Not only is Pebble Beach one of the most visually stunning golf courses in the world, but it’s also one of the most statistically stunning golf courses in the world.
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This venue cannot be beaten with shear power alone. It demands a level of precision and course management that favors accuracy over distance. The microscopic greens will be missed at a high rate, which increases the value of all short-game categories. Checking in at 6,989 yards, it’s truly in a class of its own.
Winner: Russell Henley (+3100)
Finally a golf course that rewards Henley’s precision and accuracy! He’s routinely playing out of the fairway and he’s one of the best approach players in the world. He kicked off 2026 by gaining more than nine strokes on approach in six measured rounds – earning a T19 in Honolulu and a T8 in Palm Springs.
Top 10: Daniel Berger (+425)
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The last time we’ve seen Berger at Pebble Beach was 2021, when he hoisted the trophy on Sunday afternoon. He has three trips to the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and he has returned with a Top 10 finish in all of them.
Top 20: Justin Rose (-108)
Rosey knocked the cover off the ball in La Jolla, gaining over eight strokes in the two ball-striking categories – en route to his runaway victory. Now he gets another crack at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am where he’s earned three straight Top 11 finishes including a win in 2023.
Top 20: Shane Lowry (+162)
Lowry will make his 2026 PGA TOUR debut at Pebble Beach but he’s been playing plenty of golf. He’s teed it up nine times since last year’s TOUR Championship, including a successful Ryder Cup at Bethpage Black. He’s gained strokes on approach in six straight DP World Tour starts and finished second here last year.
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Prop Parlay: Jason Day Top 10 + Ryan Gerard Top 20 (+1023)
I don’t often get into these types of wagers but I was stunned by the prices for two guys who should really set up well for Pebble Beach. I don’t have to guess on Jason Day’s course fit, he’s gained 2.12 strokes per round in 16 trips to this event – his best course by a wide margin. Gerard took last week off but has been one of the hottest players on TOUR in 2026, opening up with three straight Top 11 finishes.
Prop: Winner To Birdie 72nd – YES (+105)
The 18th hole at Pebble Beach is one of the more iconic holes in the world and will be an excellent finishing point for this week’s event. It’s a strategic par-5 that can be birdied in a variety of ways. With a smaller, more competitive field, there’s likely going to be a “need” to birdie this hole as opposed to trying to play it safe.
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