The No. 4 seed Arkansas State Red Wolves (24-9) link up against No. 3 seed Troy Trojans (22-10) in the 2025 Sun Belt Tournament Championship Game on Monday. The Red Wolves have won five games in a row. They beat South Alabama 74-71 in the semifinals. Meanwhile, Troy is on a five-game winning streak. The Trojans beat James Madison 79-60 in the semifinals. Arkansas State is playing in the Sun Belt Championship for the second straight year after losing 91-71 to James Madison last season.
Tipoff from Pensacola Bay Center is at 7 p.m. ET. The latest Arkansas State vs. Troy odds via SportsLine consensus list the Red Wolves as 1.5-point favorites, while the over/under for total points scored is 137.5. Before making any Arkansas State vs. Troy picks, you need to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every Division 1 college basketball game 10,000 times. It enters Week 18 of the 2024-25 season on a 221-162 betting roll (+1895) on all top-rated college basketball picks dating back to 2023. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.
Now, the model has dialed in on Arkansas State vs. Troy and just revealed its coveted picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the college basketball betting lines and trends for Arkansas State vs. Troy:
- Arkansas State vs. Troy spread: Red Wolves -1.5
- Arkansas State vs. Troy over/under: 137.5 points
- Arkansas State vs. Troy money line: Red Wolves -126, Trojans +106
- Arkansas State vs. Troy picks: See picks here
- Arkansas State vs. Troy streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)
Why Arkansas State can cover
Senior guard Taryn Todd is an athletic playmaker in the backcourt. He leads the team in scoring (15.1) with 4.6 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. The Ontario native has scored 15-plus points in 14 games this season. On March 8 against Marshall, Todd had 19 points, three rebounds and two assists.
Junior guard Joseph Pinion can space the floor and be an asset on the perimeter. He logs 12.3 points, four rebounds and shoots 37% from downtown. Pinion has scored more than 20 points in two of his last three games. In the semifinal win over South Alabama, the Arkansas native poured in 23 points, six rebounds and five assists. See who to back at SportsLine.
Why Troy can cover
Senior guard Tayton Conerway makes an impact in multiple areas on the court. Conerway leads the team in points (13.8), assists (4.9), and steals (3.1), with 4.7 rebounds per game. The Texas native has finished with more than 20 points in four of his last nine outings. In Sunday’s win over James Madison, he had 22 points and four dimes.
Sophomore forward Thomas Dowd is an active force in the paint as a scorer and rebounder. He puts up 9.4 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. The Alabama naive has recorded a double-double in four of his last eight games. In his previous outing, Dowd notched 18 points, 11 rebounds and three blocks. See who to back at SportsLine.
How to make Arkansas State vs. Troy picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, predicting the teams combine for 144 points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can see the model’s pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Arkansas State vs. Troy, and which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up nearly $2,000 on top-rated spread picks since 2023, and find out.
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