At this point, it seems there’s no much more Nikola Jokic can do to win his fourth NBA MVP. It seems like the decision that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would win the award was made a while ago.
Though, a ridiculous 61-point triple double by Jokic on Tuesday night did at least move the odds. Just not to the point where it’s reasonable to think Jokic can win MVP.
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander opened the week as a -5000 favorite (bet $5,000 to win $100) to win MVP at BetMGM. That’s an implied probability of 98.0%. SGA was practically a lock to win.
And, practically speaking, he still is. But, the odds did move in Jokic’s direction, even if he’s still a massive underdog.
NBA MVP odds for Nikola Jokic, SGA
After Jokic scored 61 points with 10 rebounds and 10 assists in a double overtime loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday night, the MVP odds at BetMGM shifted on Wednesday morning.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s odds moved from -5000 to -2500. Jokic shifted from +1500 to +1000. BetMGM wasn’t offering MVP odds on any other player.
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That seems like a fairly big move, but it still doesn’t move SGA out of a near-lock position. The implied probability of a -2500 bet is 96.2%. There’s still not much chance of Jokic winning the award, based on the betting odds.
An ESPN straw poll reflected that SGA is the clear favorite, though maybe not as heavily as the odds would suggest. Of 100 NBA insiders that ESPN polled, 77 voted for Gilgeous-Alexander and 23 voted for Jokic.
If a 61-point triple double, the most points ever put up in a triple double, doesn’t flip the odds — like a 31 point, 21 rebound, 22 assist triple double by Jokic back on March 7 didn’t budge the odds much — then it seems like the NBA can start engraving the trophy.
Nikola Jokic has won three of the last four NBA MVP awards. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
(AAron Ontiveroz via Getty Images)
Is voter fatigue affecting the race?
Gilgeous-Alexander has had a great season, but it sure seems like voter fatigue is playing a part in him being a runaway favorite to win MVP.
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Jokic has won three of the past four MVPs. He probably should have won four in a row, but had to settle for NBA Finals MVP the season he didn’t win the regular season award. We saw with Lamar Jackson losing to Josh Allen in the NFL MVP voting a few months ago that voters like spreading awards around. It has happened before. Take a look at the 1990s, when Michael Jordan lost out a couple times.
Many numbers favor Jokic, including a significant lead in ESPN’s PER stat (which is often cited in MVP arguments) that measures player efficiency. There has to be an argument for SGA over Jokic, and the voters have decided it’s that the Oklahoma City Thunder has a better record than the Denver Nuggets. That ignores that OKC has a clearly better roster than Denver (it’s funny that the opposite argument was used by voters to boost Allen over Jackson in the NFL MVP voting) but it’s a way to construct an argument against Jokic.
Gilgeous-Alexander has had a tremendous season, with exquisite shooting efficiency for a guard and having a big impact on the Thunder’s 63-12 record. If the polls and odds are right, he’s going to win his first MVP. Even a 61-point triple double seemingly didn’t give Jokic a reasonable chance to get back in the race.
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