BOSTON — Expansion is coming to the NBA, just don’t expect it to happen quickly.
“I think I said a few years ago, collective bargaining agreement, new media deals, then we would turn to expansion,” NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said Thursday night before Game 1 of the NBA Finals, during an annual Q&A with the media. “So we got part one done clearly, and thank you to the Players Association. We are very happy, I think both sides are, with our collective bargaining agreement.
“Media deals, it’s been a long process. It’s ongoing, and we hope to wrap it up in the relative near term, and then we will turn to expansion.”
Silver was careful not to elaborate on the coming media deals and negotiations, although reports suggest it will more than double the revenue coming into the NBA. Silver did apologize for how the negotiations have played out publicly with employees of long-time NBA rights partner TNT (now owned by Warner Bros. Discovery) dangling in the wind.
“I apologize that this has been a prolonged process, because I know they’re committed to their jobs,” Silver said. “I know people who work in this industry. It’s a large part of their identity and their family’s identity, and no one likes this uncertainty. I think it’s on the league office to bring these negotiations to a head and conclude them as quickly as we can.”
Once those negotiations are finalized (which will be after the NBA Finals and more likely in July), the NBA will focus more on expansion, Silver said.
“By turning to expansion it doesn’t mean we’re going to announce that now we’re ready to add teams,” Silver said, trying to pump the breaks on expectations. “It means that there will be a committee of NBA governors [read: owners] that will focus on it. There are clearly markets out there that are very interested and will run through a process. But I actually am looking forward to that. I think that the league, it’s not preordained that we will expand this time, but I know there’s an enormous amount of interest out there.”
It would be shocking if the league did not expand, and it would be more shocking if one of those teams did not land in Seattle, returning the NBA to a market it never should have left. It would be surprising if Las Vegas were not the other market.
What has held up expansion in the past is that NBA owners didn’t want to further divide the television revenue pie. Each team got their 1/30th slice and owners didn’t want that to be 1/32nd, but now that pie is about to be so big the pain is not as sharp. Plus, the owners will get a massive one-time upfront payment — each new team will have to pay an expansion fee expected to be north of $4 billion, with that money divided among the owners.
Just don’t expect things to move quickly. The NBA governors will study the issue, and there will be a bidding process. Then, once the new cities and ownership groups are selected, there will be a ramp-up process of at least a couple of years. Starting in the 2028-29 season seems like the earliest things could happen, and that might be optimistic.
However, despite Silver downplaying it, there is widespread acceptance around the NBA that expansion is coming. It’s when not if.
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