At long last, the move we’ve been talking about in theory has finally become a reality as Aaron Rodgers will be signing a contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers and report to their minicamp. The Steelers now have a starting quarterback in place 87 days after the NFL’s legal negotiating window for free agents began. What a journey.
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Make no mistake, Rodgers is an upgrade on whatever competition the Steelers would have been forced to stage between Mason Rudolph and sixth-round rookie Will Howard. There’s a large gap between better than that and a rock-solid solution. To me, Rodgers falls somewhere in that chasm.
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Rodgers is one of my favorite quarterbacks of all time. His early years with the Green Bay Packers included some of the most blistering highs I can remember consuming. He exuded football joy with a lightning-quick release and well-earned arm arrogance. We don’t see many quarterbacks execute offenses in that style and with the precision Rodgers brought to the table anymore. It was a special moment in time … it’s also been quite a while since we’ve seen Rodgers play at that level. While his return to glory amid a two-time MVP run with Matt LaFleur in a marriage of offensive worlds was sublime, that’s also slipping into deep history in what is always a swift passage of time in NFL terms.
Rodgers has ranked 23rd in adjusted yards per attempt among quarterbacks over the last three years. That includes his final year in Green Bay, where a decline in play began before his ultimate downfall with the New York Jets. The guy we’ve watched in recent years just hasn’t been a needle-mover behind center.
Now, the bar for an upgrade for Pittsburgh could quite not be lower. The Steelers rank 32nd in the NFL since 2022, the season following Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement, in touchdown passes with a paltry 46. Amid a laughable Matt Canada offense, a doomed first-round pick in Kenny Pickett and a rotating cast of young, immature pass-catchers, this has quietly become one of the worst soils in which to grow passing production.
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Rodgers can be the slightly below-average quarterback he’s been in that same period and still represent an advancement on what’s been happening on the offensive side of the football for the Steelers. But is that enough for me to raise my season-long expectations for the Steelers as a football team — at best a one-and-done playoff team like they’ve been for years — or adjust a single one of their fantasy players in my rankings?
No, it’s not.
Regardless of Rodgers’ presence, the newly acquired DK Metcalf will need to be a supreme target hog on what will be a run-heavy offense. Outside of one year with Matt Ryan in Atlanta, Arthur Smith’s offenses have always been in the bottom five in passing rate. Rodgers’ offenses are also historically slow-paced units because he likes to get to the line to make adjustments. That’s about the only overlap this version of Rodgers shares with Smith from a philosophical standpoint. I have many questions about how Rodgers, who has become allergic to attacking the intermediate middle of the field, will mesh with Smith’s passing concepts, which primarily look to exploit that area. On top of that, Rodgers has become overly demanding on his wide receivers in terms of precision and timing as route runners. That’s not exactly the strength of Metcalf’s game. They’re a bit of an oil-and-water pairing; not that many receivers have been able to satisfy whatever it is Rodgers is looking for out of that position the last few seasons.
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Lastly, I’m working under the assumption here that in Pittsburgh, Rodgers operates at something close to the level he played at for most of last season with the New York Jets. He certainly moved better toward the end of the season, as one would expect the farther he got from his torn Achilles tendon, but that netted him a mere 20th-place ranking in EPA per dropback from Week 14 to 18 among quarterbacks with 100 pass attempts. What if, at 41 years old, he takes another step back physically? There’s a real 2022-Colts’-Matt-Ryan season in the range of outcomes for this pairing and, if you made me choose, I’d say it’s safer to take that side than some mystical Rodgers-and-Mike-Tomlin rebirth season happening in 2025.
We’ve been projecting and ranking Steelers players with the assumption that Rodgers would be the quarterback for months now. The fact that it actually happened doesn’t change anything; it merely removes the need to discuss a 17-game Mason-Rudolph-starting-wasted season from the range of outcomes. However, his presence certainly doesn’t mean any of these Steelers players are risk-free.
I’m going in eyes wide open to this situation: a once-elite passer suiting up in a mercenary role for a desperate franchise that is attempting to pay for sins at the quarterback position and hang onto the very end of an era with an aging core on defense at the same time. I’d encourage all of you to view this in a similar fashion as you put together your 2025 season projections.
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