A result that puts Leeds safe, Forest in trouble - and Dyche in doubt?

One down, three to go for Leeds.

Before their crucial win against Nottingham Forest, boss Daniel Farke said he expected four more victories would seal his side’s Premier League survival.

Friday’s dominant 3-1 triumph, thanks to goals from Jayden Bogle, Noah Okafor and Dominic Calvert-Lewin, moved them nine points clear of the relegation zone and chalked one off.

They now sit on 29 points – already enough to survive in both of the past two seasons.

“It was a game with a bit more on the line,” said Farke afterwards. “It feels sometimes a bit more important than other games.

“To deliver in this way with such a spirited performance, it’s sometimes more perfect than an easy 4-0 or 5-0. It was a massive performance.”

Their advantage over the bottom three may be cut back to six points if West Ham win at Burnley in another huge game on Saturday, but little would dampen the mood at a sodden Elland Road.

So what does this result really mean for Leeds, Forest and the wider relegation picture?

What do the stats say about the relegation battle?

History is on Leeds’ side.

Only three times have teams been relegated at the end of a 38-game Premier League season having been on at least 29 points at this stage.

Sunderland, who were on 29 points after 25 games finished 18th in 1996-97, while Ipswich and Birmingham City, who were on 30 in 2001-02 and 2010-11 respectively, also ended the season in 18th.

On average, the team finishing in 17th ends up on 38 points – and, just as Farke suggested pre-match, three more wins from their 13 remaining games would see Leeds get there.

Things don’t look too bad for Nottingham Forest either, though.

Only three teams have gone down at the end of a 38-game season after being on 26 points at this stage.

Of the past nine teams who have been relegated, Leicester’s 24 points in 2022-23 is the most any team who finished inside the bottom three had after 25 games.

Following Friday’s match, Opta predicts that Leeds have only a 4.75% chance of going down, with Forest on 10.24%.

West Ham are 83.88% likely to go down – although that could yet change after Saturday’s game – while Burnley (98.35%) and Wolves (99.99%) appear to be all but down already.

How a double substitution turned Leeds’ season around

Farke seemed on the brink of losing his job earlier this season, but has overseen a stunning turnaround in his side’s form.

It began when he opted to tear up the gameplan at Manchester City in November, reverting to a 3-5-2 formation with two up top and only being condemned to defeat after City scored a stoppage-time winner.

That result left them sitting inside the bottom three on goal difference, but their fortunes have markedly changed in the matches that have followed.

Leeds have lost just two of their past 12 games and picked up 18 points.

“They’ve been on a great run since that Manchester City game way before Christmas,” ex-Leeds midfielder Stuart Dallas said on Sky Sports.

“They had the change of shape, the change of formation and they’ve put a really good run together.

“They were excellent throughout the game [against Nottingham Forest] and it’s a big win. Psychologically it is huge for them ahead of a weekend of big fixtures.”

‘The work is done at the end of the season’

Forest, meanwhile, have won just two of their past nine Premier League games.

Crucially, one of those was a 2-1 victory at West Ham last month, which kept the Hammers from moving one point behind.

And, even when Nuno Espirito Santo’s side beat Sunderland two weeks ago, Forest reacted with an impressive 2-0 win at Brentford 24 hours later.

Those results were achieved, however, with a first-choice defence – and the absence of Matz Sels with a groin injury has been a huge loss too.

It was a gamble to replace last season’s joint Golden Glove winner with John Victor in December and one which ultimately backfired, with Victor himself now also sidelined for the rest of the campaign.

That prompted Forest to bring in Stefan Ortega from Manchester City during the transfer window – but his debut against Leeds meant a defence which was so consistent last season was only changed further.

Zach Abbott was another debutant at Elland Road, the 19-year-old making his first Premier League appearance in the absence of injured defender Murillo.

Abbott was targeted in the first half as Leeds seized on his inexperience – although Leeds’ goals were ultimately down to a collective failure.

“We didn’t get the injury news on Murillo until after training so we didn’t get to work on anything else after that,” said boss Sean Dyche.

“We just can’t make basic errors like that. We didn’t have a lot of time to work with the group at the back but we can’t make basic errors.

“When we got here we were two points in the relegation zone and now we’re six points out of it. I wasn’t getting carried away beating Liverpool 3-0 and Tottenham 3-0 and people saying it was one of the best performances they’ve had in the Premier League.

“I knew if we won the work wasn’t done. I look at if the work is done at the end of the season, not if we win or lose a game.”

So what now for Dyche?

The full ramifications of yet another disappointing night for Nottingham Forest won’t be known until Sunday evening.

The loss at Leeds will serve only to heighten concerns at the City Ground over the looming threat of relegation.

West Ham will cut Forest’s cushion to three points with victory over Burnley on Saturday, while Crystal Palace and Tottenham can stretch their advantages over Dyche’s side to six points by the time the weekend is out.

You wonder how the Forest hierarchy may react if the walls close in any more. Indeed, it is understood Dyche is under increasing pressure.

Losing to a fellow relegation candidate in such a meek manner at Elland Road will not ease the internal scrutiny on Dyche’s performance, with sources indicating support for the head coach isn’t currently as solid as it has been.

Having already had three managers this season, it seems inconceivable that owner Evangelos Marinakis will seek a fourth head coach before the campaign is out.

But history tells us that the club’s Greek owner has not been slow in making such decisions if he believes it is in Forest’s best interests.

They now face bottom club Wolves on Wednesday at the City Ground. The home support will be expecting three points – but if Forest falter the pressure on Dyche will intensify.

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