Daniel Dubois early or Fabio Wardley late? Where heavyweight title clash will be won and lost

For as good a fight as Fabio Wardley vs Daniel Dubois is, is it as two-dimensional as some are claiming? Does it really boil down to “Dubois early or Wardley late”?

It’s an understandable narrative on the face of it, given each man’s recent form, but the truth is, it might not hold up to much scrutiny. So, let’s waste no time.

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We’ll address Wardley’s side of this equation first. He will enter Saturday’s WBO heavyweight title defence on the back of two late knockouts – one against Justis Huni in June, the other versus Joseph Parker in October.

These were not just late stoppages, though, with the Ipswich boxer taking out Huni in round 10 and Parker in the 11th; they were comeback KOs, as Wardley trailed on the scorecards on both occasions.

Yet for all their similarities, these finishes can be distinguished, too.

Wardley’s finish against Huni was a true one-punch KO, a mammoth overhand that beat the Australian’s cross for pace, undoing all of Huni’s good work in an instant. In that moment, Wardley was something of a matador, edging backwards slightly while Huni stepped in on his own jab feint and right straight.

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Against Parker, there was some controversy. Before the finish in the 11th round, Wardley actually hurt the New Zealander with a sneaky rear uppercut in the dying seconds of the 10th. Wardley could not seal the stoppage then, but midway through the penultimate round, he drew down Parker’s hands with a feinted jab to the chest, before a step-in cross to the chin. The ensuing onslaught was not as accurate from Wardley as it might have been, but there were enough clean shots and enough eye-catching swings to force the referee to intervene.

So, on this occasion, it was more about optics and accumulation than a single-shot, Houdini-esque escape. Still, it was an escape.

Yet Wardley’s two previous outings, a pair of duels with Frazer Clarke, showed that the 31-year-old can be involved in very different types of fights. The first clash with Clarke was a split draw after a hellish 12 rounds, while the rematch ended inside two and a half minutes, as Wardley literally put a dent in his fellow Briton’s head.

In fact, prior to this, many of Wardley’s wins had come via early stoppages, helping him build an overall record of 20-0-1 (19 KOs).

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And what of Dubois (22-3, 21 KOs)?

Firstly, his last “early” finish came three years ago, when he stopped Kevin Lerena in round two after challenging fans’ perceptions of his own heart (Dubois had climbed off the canvas three times in round one, battling through a knee injury).

Since then, the 28-year-old has fought five times and gone 3-2. His defeats by Oleksandr Usyk occurred in round nine in 2023 and round five last summer, while his wins came in the fifth frame (Anthony Joshua, 2024), eighth (Filip Hrgovic, 2024) and 10th (Jarrell Miller, 2023).

While some see Dubois as a flat-track bully who does not like to endure a tough fight, the former IBF champ absorbed significant damage against Miller before stopping the American in the final 10 seconds of their bout, and he was also tagged cleanly and repeatedly by Hrgovic before rallying to force a doctor stoppage. He was even buzzed by Joshua in the seconds prior to knocking out his fellow Briton.

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Wardley vs Dubois odds

Wardley – 5/6 • Dubois – 21/20 • Draw – 18/1

Odds via Betfred. Betting sites give a slight edge to the champion, with Wardley odds-on for the win over Dubois, who is around the even-money mark with most bookies.

So, Dubois does have the capacity to withstand damage, despite any surface-level or lazy narratives around him, and he does have the ability to stop a fight late. Conversely, Wardley is not only a threat in the final few rounds, even if his two bouts in 2025 belie this reality.

Regardless, there is a good chance that this turns into a brawl quickly – and, actually, that a finish arrives in the middle rounds. “A finish” replaces “the finish” here, although the consensus is that Wardley vs Dubois will not go the full distance. But even if the final round is required at Manchester’s Co-op Live arena, who is to say the final bell will be? This fight has been marketed as “Don’t Blink” for a reason.