NASCAR Predictions Talladega: 5 Bold Projections and a First-Time Winner

Who wins the NASCAR race this weekend? Dega has arrived, with the Cup Series headed to Talladega Superspeedway for the Jack Link’s 500 on Sunday afternoon. As we do every week, our NASCAR predictions attempt to project what will happen, from who wins the pole to stage winners and who makes it to victory lane.

Let’s dive into our Jack Link’s 500 predictions at Talladega.

Kyle Busch Wins the Pole at Dega

Vasha Hunt-Imagn Images

The lone bright spot for the No. 8 team this season came when it won the pole at the Daytona 500. During this Kyle Busch winless streak, superspeedways have been one of the few tracks where he’s had some success. Richard Childress Racing, for as much as it does wrong with the car setup everywhere else, knows how to build its cars for Talladega, as evidenced by Busch’s 3.3 average starting position since 2024. At the track where he qualified fourth in the spring race of 2024 and second in spring 2025, Busch gets the pole on Saturday at Dega.

Related: Kyle Busch Doubles-Down on Denny Hamlin Feud, Reveals His Hate List

Austin Cindric Wins Stage 1

NASCAR Predictions Talladega — Vasha Hunt-Imagn Images

Team Penske needs to rebound after a miserable showing at Texas. To Austin Cindric’s credit, he (12th place) greatly outperformed his two teammates. Now the driver of the No. 2 car arrives at Talladega, where he earned a stage win in both races during the 2024 season and turned a third-place finish in Stage 2 last spring into a win in last year’s Jack Link’s 500. While we aren’t projecting Cindric to make it back to victory lane this weekend, he will get a Stage 1 victory and jump above The Chase cutline after Sunday.

Related: Controversial NASCAR Driver Added to Cup Series Entry List at Talladega

Joey Logano Wins Stage 2

We’re predicting a sweep of the stages for Team Penske at Dega. Logano will finish in the top four in Stage 1 and then, with some help from crew chief Paul Wolfe and the No. 22’s pit crew, navigate the much-shorter Stage 2 to get 10 much-needed points. All of this will just be a part of an outstanding points day for the No. 22 car, which finishes top-five in the scoring and heads into next week in the top 10 of the NASCAR Cup Series points leaders.

Related: NASCAR Cup Series Stage Winners 2026, Stage Results By Race

Tyler Reddick, Ty Gibbs Finish Outside Top 10

Ty Gibbs has a top-10 finish in seven consecutive races, and Tyler Reddick, in addition to his five wins this year, boasts a stellar 10.5 average finishing position at Talladega in the last four races. We’re projecting both drivers won’t finish that high come Sunday. For Gibbs, his performance at Texas honestly left a lot to be desired, and we have real concerns about how well he’ll fare in traffic at Dega. Meanwhile, in a season where so much has gone right for the No. 45 team, Reddick’s luck runs out on Sunday with car issues that keep him outside the top 20 at the end.

Related: NASCAR Weekend Schedule for Talladega Superspeedway

Carson Hocevar Wins The Jack Link’s 500

In his 90th race, Carson Hocevar will deliver his first-ever win in the Cup Series. He’s proven since last year that he has the speed to make it to victory lane, and now the experience of running all those races is paying off. Hocevar is going to find himself in a battle with Logano, Kyle Larson, Austin Dillon, and Chase Briscoe in the final laps on Sunday at Talladega. His peers might not like what he does to win, but Hocevar comes through with a victory and a finish that proves to be one of the most exciting moments of the 2026 season.

Related: NASCAR Cup Series Entry List for Talladega

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