What happens when you solve a problem with another problem?
Adam Silver and the NBA’s campaign to abolish the practice of tanking has creased another wrinkle, as the newest proposal to cure professional basketball of its blood-sucking parasite has been revealed to the public. Their solution? Eliminate the incentive to tank by completely erasing the advantage of finishing in last place and rewarding those who won just a few more games.
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Here’s how it works, according to Kevin O’Connor:
The three worst records in the NBA will all be given decreased lottery odds and a worse chance at receiving the number-one overall pick compared to teams 4-10 in the lottery order. This eliminates any incentive to dive to the bottom of the standings and gives the league’s worst teams no reason to tank, especially in the late season (unless you’re just one or two spots above that 4-10 range, I suppose).
It’s innovative and relatively straightforward (I’d certainly prefer to commit this rule to memory than other suggestions like taking an average of the last two seasons’ records, tracking draft credits, or other dizzying proposals). Tanking is a race for last place, and by removing all incentive to be in the bottom three, you remove all incentive to tank at all. Problem solved!
…Not quite.
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If this fix actually accomplishes its goal of eliminating tanking, the NBA will be plagued with a new problem of its own creation.
Assuming a future where tanking no longer exists, the altered lottery odds could keep the NBA’s worst teams at the bottom for years. Franchises with little free agency appeal and a smaller bank account will be in the bottom four, not by choice, but by nature. They didn’t fall to the bottom on purpose — tanking is over.
These are the teams that need a Cooper Flagg, an AJ Dybantsa, a Darryn Peterson, or a Cameron Boozer. These are the teams that must build a competitive team through the draft. These are the teams that, under this proposed rule change, are systematically disadvantaged from ever drafting a player capable of changing their luck.
If the bottom four teams are, in fact, the worst four teams, why are they being penalized?
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Tanking isn’t the disease; it’s a symptom. We’re treating a papercut via amputation — sure, my finger doesn’t hurt anymore, but now I don’t have a hand. What have we fixed?
The NBA Draft was originally implemented with one purpose in mind: to prevent bad teams from staying bad and good teams from perpetual dominance. The inverted order makes perfect sense for this reason: give the worst teams good players, and give the best teams the leftovers. For the sake of competition and parity, this system works perfectly.
When one player’s impact is minimal, like in the MLB and NFL, tanking isn’t a very common practice. In the NBA this season, nearly one-third of the league was actively sabotaging their season for the opportunity of drafting a top player.
The NBA Draft Lottery accelerates the tanking problem, giving teams 1-14 in the order a chance at lucking into the number-one overall pick, and we’ve seen teams jump up 10 and 9 spots to the number-one pick in consecutive years.
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That’s why teams want to tank, even if they’re not at the bottom of the standings; so long as you’re in the lottery, you have a chance at a franchise-changing superstar.
I propose that the draft isn’t the problem at all — the lottery is.
Eliminate the lottery, and instead return to the straightforward inverse order according to the teams’ records. You’ll still see teams 1 through 3 make a desperate attempt to tank their way to the number one pick, or to simply retain their draft position, but what about teams 6-14?
Do you really think that this year’s Golden State Warriors or Miami Heat would be desperately dropping games for the sake of getting the 11th pick instead of the 12th?
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Would Washington or Indiana spend year after year dive-bombing the standings ladder if they already got their franchise star after one year of misery? There would be no need to after just one or two seasons, right? But instead, you have teams like Washington, Utah, Charlotte, and Brooklyn who have spent four-plus years tanking away, only for the odds to fall flat and encourage another season of deliberate losing.
By giving half the league a chance of leapfrogging the draft order if the ping pong balls fall their way, you give half the league a reason to tank for every percentage point. You’re not digging deep enough, Adam Silver, and you won’t bring in more fans by further complicating the sport.
Calvin Barrett is a writer, editor, and prolific Mario Kart racer located in Tokyo, Japan. He has covered the NBA and College Sports since 2024.
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