So You’re Thinking of Drafting a Round 1 Quarterback

Later this month, Fernando Mendoza will be the first overall pick in the NFL Draft. Ty Simpson might make his way into the first round as well. It will be the 30^th straight year at least one quarterback has gone in the first round — every year since Tony Banks was the first quarterback off the board in the second round of 1996. When there are that many first-rounders, finding a throughline that connects all of them is impossible. But we can look for trends and takeaways from first-round quarterbacks. So below, I’m looking at every first-round quarterback selected since the turn of the century and looking for what we can learn and how we can apply that to Mendoza, Simpson and any other first-round quarterbacks we might see. (Also, for everything that follows, I’m treating things as though the Giants drafted Eli Manning in 2004 and the Chargers drafted Philip Rivers, even if technically it was the other way around and the trade for one another was consummated after the draft.)

First-Round Quarterbacks Since 2000

The Tally

Since 2000, 29 teams have selected a first-round quarterback, with a total of 77 quarterbacks going in the first. Only the Cowboys, Seahawks and Saints have totally passed on first-round QBs.

The quickest turnaround, famously, was the Cardinals going from Josh Rosen in 2018 to Kyler Murray in 2019.

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When Do They Take Over?

Some first-round quarterbacks are the starters from Day One. Others are brought in as developmental options or are stuck behind existing starters. If you consider a player a starter in his year if he starts at least half the games, then 49 of our 77 first-rounders were rookie starters.

On the flip side, nine first-round quarterbacks this century haven’t started a single game: Chad Pennington, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, J.P. Losman, Aaron Rodgers, Jason Campbell, Brady Quinn, Jake Locker and J.J. McCarthy. Three more (JaMarcus Russell, Patrik Mahomes, Jordan Love) started a single game. On average, first-round quarterbacks start 9.6 games as a rookie. Among those who don’t start at least half the games as a rookie:

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• 16 became the starter in Year 2.

• Five (Chad Pennington, Philip Rivers, J.P. Losman, Jason Campbell, Brady Quinn) became the starter in Year 3.

• Three (Rex Grossman, Jordan Love, Aaron Rodgers) became the starter in Year 4.

• Four (Johnny Manziel, Paxton Lynch, Trey Lance, Dwayne Haskins) never became the starter (or, if we’re being optimistic about Lance, not yet).

How Did Their Teams Do?

We have 49 quarterbacks who started at least half their games in Year 1. One of those — David Carr in 2002 — was drafted to an expansion team, so we can’t compare his sample to the year before. So that leaves us with 48 first-round quarterbacks who started as rookies. The teams that selected a first-round quarterback averaged a .295 winning percentage the year before selecting a quarterback. In a 17-game season, that’s 5.0 wins. The year with a rookie starter, it climbed to .393, 6.7 wins. That’s an increase of 1.7 wins per season. Among our 48-team sample, 29 increased their winning percentage from one year to the next. Six put up the exact same record. That leaves 13 teams that saw their record get worse, from Kenny Pickett taking the Steelers from a .559 winning percentage to .529 (0.030 points worse) down to Josh Freeman taking the Buccaneers from .563 to .188 (.375 worse). Eleven first-round QB starters have made the playoffs in their debut season:

• 2003 Kyle Boller, Baltimore Ravens

• 2004 Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

• 2008 Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

• 2008 Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

• 2009 Mark Sanchez, New York Jets

• 2012 Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

• 2012 Robert Griffin III, Washington

• 2021 Mac Jones, New England Patriots

• 2023 C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

• 2024 Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

• 2024 Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

And here’s the wrinkle: Of those 11 teams that made the playoffs with a rookie QB, nine had seen their record dip significantly from two years before drafting that QB to one year before. For example, the 2002 Steelers went 10-5-1. They slipped to 6-10, which prompted them to draft Roethlisberger and go 15-1. The 2010 Colts went 10-6, lost Peyton Manning for 2011, went 2-14, and used that as an opportunity to draft Andrew Luck and go 11-5.

The primary exceptions: C.J. Stroud took the Texans from .235 to .206 to .588 in his rookie year, and Bo Nix took the Broncos from .294 to .471 to .588 in his. Translation: You can make the playoffs after a bad season. But typically, that’s because the bad season is a blip for a good team, not (generally) a team getting a guy and him fixing everything.

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How Long Did It Take Them to Get Good?

Taking a quarterback in the first round is generally like a poker player moving all-in. You are putting your chips in the middle, and if it works out, great, but if it doesn’t, you’re kinda screwed. And that’s true whether you’re giving the new kid the job from the jump or not. So looking back at the first-round quarterbacks, this century, I was curious how long after splurging on a quarterback it took teams to finish .500 or above again. The thinking is that .500 teams are generally those who show up on the “in the hunt” graphics around Week 14, 15, and that’s enough to count as relevant even if not necessarily “good.” To the chart:

(Seven teams — the Jets and Giants twice each, Panthers, Falcons and Titans — have not finished above .500 since one of their splurges, so they are counted through 2025.) The vast majority of teams get back to .500 or better within a couple years of drafting a rookie quarterback, simply because the NFL is predisposed to teams approaching .500 one way or another. But there are some definite exceptions. The Lions took Joey Harrington in 2002 and didn’t see .500 again until 2011, their third year with Matthew Stafford. The Browns took Brandon Weeden in 2012 and didn’t crack a winning record until 2020, Baker Mayfield’s third season. The Jets haven’t finished .500 or above since 2015 despite drafting Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson in that time.

Are those three of the historically most inept franchises in NFL history? Sure, granted. Are the Raiders, who are all but locked in on Fernando Mendoza this year, also one of those historically inept franchises? Yeah, kinda.

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But What About the Very Top of the Draft?

OK, so that’s the whole first round. That means something. But not all first-rounders are made the same, right? Equating Kenny Pickett (the 20^th pick in 2022) to Andrew Luck (the first pick in 2012) is only so helpful. So let’s narrow our focus. Only top-five quarterbacks. There are 37 members of that cohort this century, from Michael Vick in 2001 to Cam Ward last year. Nine of them were not starters in Year 1 — interestingly, only three of the nine quarterbacks selected through 2009 started in Year 1, but 24 of the last 27 have done so. In other words, teams are growing impatient. Since JaMarcus Russell in 2007, only three top-five quarterbacks have not been their teams’ starters as rookies, and one of them (Anthony Richardson Sr. in 2023) was set up to do so if not for injury. Jared Goff in 2016 did starter seven games, just shy of our “starter” threshold. Only Trey Lance, selected third in 2021, was truly not a starter as a rookie. But remember our 11 playoff rookie quarterbacks from above? Six of them were top-five picks — Matt Ryan in 2008 (third), Mark Sanchez in 2009 (fifth), Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III in 2012 (first and second), C.J. Stroud in 2023 (second) and Jayden Daniels in 2024 (second).

Conclusion

As I said at the top, when you have a sample of 77 quarterbacks over 26 years, you aren’t going to find one common bond throughout all of them. That said, there are some highlights:

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• A quarterback who goes in the top five these days is just going to start right away. The exceptions are few.

• A team that takes a quarterback early will in all likelihood be decent again within 2-3 years … because almost every NFL team gets “decent” within 2-3 years.

• There’s roughly a 14% chance a team with a first-round QB will make the playoffs — 11 out of 77. The ones that do were likely decent the year before they bottomed out. (The Raiders don’t qualify.)

• If you’re a quarterback, try really hard to not get drafted by the Jets.

  • You probably knew that one already.