Ah, a fresh season. Unlimited potential. Anything is possible! Or at least, it feels that way until the moment your favorite team fails to score after having a runner on third base with no outs, or if the bullpen blows a five-run lead. That is when you remember that baseball, while beautiful, may be the most frustrating game of all.
Alas, the Orioles will enter yet another brand new campaign anyway. This one does genuinely begin with lofty aspirations. They were one of the busiest clubs over the winter, and on paper they look like a team that could do some great things. At the very least, they should improve upon their 75 wins from a season ago
The Twins, on the other hand, seem like they could be headed in the opposite direction. They went 70-92 in 2025, which cost Rocco Baldelli his job as manager. Derek Shelton will take the reins. He was last the skipper of the Pittsburgh Pirates from 2020 through May of last year, when he was canned after a 12-26 start to the year. It’s not the most aspirational of hires, but Shelton is familiar with the organization, having served as bench coach back in 2018 and ‘19.
This past offseason was highlighted more by what the Twins did not do rather than what they did. Neither Joe Ryan nor Byron Buxton was traded. That would have made sense if the organization then went and made any sort of impact additions to their roster, but they largely sat on their hands. Josh Bell, Victor Caratini, and Taylor Rogers were the “marquee” free agents brought on. While each of them are fine major leaguers, they won’t elevate this team at all.
Instead, their hopes will be pinned on Buxton and Royce Lewis being the best versions of themselves. That is asking a lot of Buxton, entering his age-32 season, who always seems to miss some amount of time. The 126 games he played in 2025 was his most in a season since 2017. Lewis gets hurt a lot too. He played in 106 games last year, the most he has ever played as a big leaguer.
The rotation will be without Pablo López. He had Tommy John surgery in February and will miss the entire 2026 season. He only tossed 75.2 big league innings last year due to a right shoulder strain that became a forearm strain during rehab. But they were stellar innings as he had a 2.74 ERA and 1.11 WHIP prior to being shut down.
Who knows what will happen in the AL Central. Once again it looks like one of the league’s weaker divisions. So maybe the Twins could get some luck and sneak up on a few clubs. But the more likely outcome is that they deal with major injuries again and slump to be one of the worst team’s in the AL. That was the case in 2025, and they still managed to go 6-0 against the Orioles. That can’t happen again for an O’s team with postseason aspirations.
Game 1: Thursday, March 26th, 3:05 p.m., MASN
LHP Trevor Rogers (9-3, 1.81 ERA in 2025) vs. RHP Joe Ryan (13-10, 3.42 ERA in 2025)
Rogers threw just 109.2 innings last year, but he was so dominant that he earned some consideration for the AL Cy Young award anyway. OK, it was just one down-ballot vote, but it’s hard to argue the logic. The southpaw was spectacular, generating 5.4 bWAR, only 1.1 bWAR less than the award winner, Tarik Skubal, who threw nearly twice as many innings. He deserves the start here even if he is a strong candidate for some negative regression.
Ryan is likely to be one of the most sought after players at this year’s trade deadline if the season goes poorly for the Twins. The 29-year-old had a 3.42 ERA and struck out 194 over 171 innings last year, and he won’t hit free agency until after the 2027 season.
Game 2: Saturday, March 28th, 4:05 p.m., MASN
RHP Kyle Bradish (1-1, 2.53 ERA in 2025) vs. RHP Taj Bradley (6-8, 5.05 ERA in 2025)
The great X-factor of the 2026 Orioles could be Bradish. We know how good he can be. Over the last three seasons he has a 2.78 ERA and is striking out 10.1 batters per nine innings. Of course, he only has 240 total innings across those three seasons due to Tommy John surgery in mid-2025. So the big question will be how healthy he can remain. The O’s are likely to be conservative with him early, shortening starts, and skipping his turn occasionally. But when he does pitch it should be dynamite.
It’s not usually a good sign when the Rays trade away a pitcher. That’s an organization that tries to hoard pitching talent as much as possible, but they were OK with swapping Bradley for Griffin Jax last year. Bradley was even worse (6.61 ERA in 31.1 innings) for Twins than he was for the Rays (4.61 ERA in 111.1 innings). Minnesota is hard-pressed to find starting options, so Bradley will get plenty of chances to prove himself.
Game 3: Sunday, March 29th, 1:35 p.m., MASN
RHP Shane Baz (10-12, 4.87 ERA in 2025) vs. RHP Bailey Ober (6-9, 5.10 ERA in 2025)
The Orioles have talked about Baz as the rotation’s ceiling-raiser all offseason. In essence, they swap him into Grayson Rodriguez’s place in the rotation. Right now, that looks like a wise decision. Rodriguez is opening the season on the IL for the Angels while Baz looked quite good in his final spring tuneup against the Nationals. There is no denying the stuff. It’s great. Now he just needs to harness it.
Ober was a disappointment in 2025. After back-to-back seasons worth 3.0 bWAR and an ERA under 4 in 2023 and ’24, he flopped badly last year. His numbers this spring were rather ugly too. Across 13 spring innings he had a 1.769 WHIP and struck out just 4.2 batters per nine innings. You gotta take those stats with a grain of salt, but his trajectory is not what you want if you’re a Twins fan.
Read the full article here
