Let’s just get this right out of the way right out of the gate: As long as all five Opening Day starters don’t hit the 60-Day IL at some point during this season like they did during the 2025 season, this rotation should be fine and will be improved over what we saw last season. Assuming there isn’t another catastrophic rash of injuries, that fact alone should help the Braves improve upon the disappointment of 2025.
With that being said, there’s a very open question on what the ceiling looks like for this rotation. They’re already missing three potential candidates to start, as Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep both had to undergo elbow surgery that’ll keep them out for a significant period of time and Joey Wentz will miss the entire season due to a torn right ACL. So right out of the gate, the organizational depth is already being challenged and Schwellenbach will surely be missed from the primary group of starters as this season progresses.
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While there are questions concerning this starting rotation, there’s still reason to believe that this rotation could be a solid and reliable one heading into the upcoming season.
Chris Sale
Sale will be entering his age-37 season and as usual for Atlanta’s current head of the rotation (and for the rest of the team, really) the key will be health. As long as Sale stays on the mound, he should be effective. Assuming he doesn’t have a complete capitulation to Father Time, Sale should be good for something in the neighborhood of 11 strikeouts per nine innings, something around two walks per nine innings while also making sure to keep the vast majority of any fly balls inside of the ballpark as well.
As of right now over at the FanGraphs Depth Chart for the Braves, Sale is currently projected to finish with a 3.15 ERA and a 3.06 FIP for 4.0 WAR. If that’s the case then the Braves should be very happy with what he’ll be delivering to them in terms of production. They also seem to be pretty confident that he’s got it in him as well, as he’ll be entering this season fresh off of signing a big contract extension that’ll keep him around through 2027 and possibly even 2028 if he keeps it up since the Braves added a club option onto his contract extension like they’re wont to do.
I’d feel pretty confident in that as well. The velocity on his pitches have been pretty steady, as his heater has been sitting near 95-mph for the past two seasons and his slider has also been in the realm of the high-70s and low-80s for some time as well. Those are the two pitchers he relies on the most and they’ve been very reliable for him in that regard. As long as that holds up and he avoids a freak accident on the field then Sale should provide another season of steadying performances at the top of this rotation.
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Spencer Strider
Questions surrounding Strider’s velocity have been the talk of the town for what feels like the entirety of spring training. I’ll say that in Strider’s case, this is a double-edged sword. The good news is that he won’t be out there throwing 92 or 93-mph during the regular season like he was to start out spring training so anybody panicking over that particular bit of information can calm down. The bad news is that if you’re anticipating the version of Spencer Strider who was throwing 98-99 and even reaching triple digits on the radar gun, then you may as well let those dreams go because it appears that the one whose fastball was at 95-96 and whose slider was at 84-85 is the one who’s here to stay.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing because it’s not as if Strider appears to be lost in the lurch without that high level of velocity. Instead, Strider is trying to adjust to this new reality in order to find an effective mix of pitches that can work for him going forward. He’s clearly been working on mixing things up since he can no longer rely upon simply blowing his four-seamer and slider past any batters. If 2025 was about simply getting back on the mound and working things out, this past offseason and spring training is about making sure that whatever he figured out in the past will translate into something that can bring him back to a level that justifies his current position near the top of the rotation.
A lot of the struggles that he dealt with in 2025 had to do with that adjustment period, in my opinion. Assuming he can work things out when it comes to his location and command, it’s very easy to see Strider becoming a an effective pitcher for the Braves going forward. Will he be as electric as he was in the past? Probably not but if he can at least get his strikeout rate back up to a “respectable” number for his standards then that’ll be a fine result. The FanGraphs depth chart currently figures that Strider could deliver a 10.6 K/9 rate alongside a 3.1 BB/9 rate, which would work out just fine for him and the Braves.
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Reynaldo López
The question for López is the same question that he had heading into what ended up being a doomed 2025 season for him: Can he be effective and productive over the course of a full season once again? López’s 2024 was exciting to see but it was also the first time he’d cleared 100 innings in a season since 2019. While his unfortunate shoulder issues robbed him of having a chance to answer those questions, it’s still fair to be concerned about what López can deliver heading into this coming season.
López’s velocity was certainly a concern when you consider that he’s coming off of a shoulder injury but it’s at least encouraging that his four-seamer velocity appears to be back to where it was back in 2024. He’s been ramping up and in his last start (that we’ve seen — López took part in simulated game at the Braves facility in North Port on Wednesday), his velocity on that fastball was at 93 and 94-mph and he even reached back and hit 96-mph with it at one point. With that being said, he’s been focusing on his breaking ball usage and that appears to be what he’s been spending most of his time working on so far in spring training.
That stuff appears to be in the same neighborhood of what he was throwing back in 2024 when he was healthy, so that’s an encouraging sign. In fact, it’s been mostly good news coming from Braves camp as far as López is concerned as he does appear to be pain-free and simply preparing for the upcoming season rather than nursing an injury or working his way through some struggles like he was during spring training last season. Hopefully that good news flows into the regular season as well — an effective trio of Sale, Strider and López could certainly help keep the Braves plenty competitive and in the mix of the NL East race.
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Grant Holmes
Holmes is coming off of a season where his role expanded significantly. Unfortunately, this didn’t translate to better results as his walk rate skyrocketed and his ability to avoid giving up the long ball also declined as well. Maybe part of that was due to the elbow issues that he was dealing with that eventually ended his season and that also may explain why there’s optimism that Holmes may be able to return to the form that made him so reliable during his rookie campaign.
For what it’s worth, most of the projection models over at FanGraphs are suggesting that his issues with giving up long balls might be here to stay — he had a 1.25 HR/9 rate in 2025 and ZiPS is projecting that that’ll stay at 1.17 for 2026. However, he might be able to get one over on hitters coming into this season now that he’s apparently added a sinker to his arsenal of pitches. Holmes also has yet to allow a run during spring training so far — though as I’ll talk about later on with Bryce Elder, you should always take spring training results with a grain of salt.
Still, Holmes has it in him to be a perfectly fine and reliable starter on the back end of this rotation. We can’t forget that stretch he had from May of last season right up until his elbow started acting up on him. Holmes delivered a 2.73 ERA (65 ERA-) with a 3.63 FIP (90 FIP-) over the course of 62.2 innings pitched during that span. If that version of Holmes returns to be the fourth starter for the Braves then things should be going pretty well for Atlanta in the near future.
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Bryce Elder
As of right now, it’s looking like Bryce Elder is going to be back in the rotation for the Opening Day roster here in 2026. He’s got the experience and he’s out of minor league options as well so the Braves are essentially going to exhaust all of the possibilities they have with him before eventually figuring out a way to let him go elsewhere. It also (sadly) helps his case that three different starting pitchers have suffered long-term injuries already. If any of those starters were in the mix then this might be a different conversation for Elder but for now, he’s right in the thick of the conversation.
With that being said, Elder hasn’t exactly had an encouraging performance during spring training. Now granted — Elder got shelled during camp in 2023 and ended up making the All-Star Game that year so this is to say that you should always try to take spring stats with a grain of salt. It’s also playing in his favor that he won’t be expected to shoulder as much of the load as he did last season. This is your reminder that Elder led the Braves in innings pitched last season and did so by just over 30 innings over Chris Sale. As I said to start this post, as long as that doesn’t repeat itself then the Braves should be fine and the Braves should be okay with Elder being a fifth starter for however long this may take.
Still, he will absolutely need to be on top of things if he wants to stick around in the rotation on a long-term basis. Elder may not be the most exciting pitcher in the world and it will never cease to be maddening watching him throw at least one hanger a game that’s just begging to get sent to the moon. However, the Braves would absolutely take him going out there and eating five-to-six innings a start while keeping the lineup within reach of making something happen. He’s had his moments where he looks like a very solid pitcher and if those moments turn into long stretches then he will stay around. He’ll just need to make it happen.
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Organizational Depth
The Braves do have some veteran options for starting pitching in their organization but also there’s a reason why they’re projected to miss out on an Opening Day roster spot at the moment. Martín Pérez is with the organization now and if he does end up usurping Bryce Elder and making the Opening Day roster, the thing to watch out for with him would be his ability to avoid getting hit really hard in terms of exit velocity. He finished in the 78th percentile of all pitchers last season when it came to Average Exit Velocity and maybe that could help him along the way if he does end up making appearances for the Braves this season.
Meanwhile, José Suarez is also available as well. While he’s pretty good at racking up whiffs, there wasn’t much else to get excited about as far as Suarez is concerned and he’s also out of minor league options as well, so there’s that. Carlos Carrasco is here as well but if we’re being completely honest, the Braves would be in a serious boondoggle if Carrasco had to pitch innings with the big league club again.
As far as prospects go, the two obvious guys who could end up making some appearances at the big league level would be Didier Fuentes (again) and JR Ritchie. Both are projected by MLB Pipeline to have an ETA of 2026 and as I mentioned for Fuentes, this wouldn’t even be his first go-around in the bigs. With that being said, I do imagine that they’re going to give him more time to cook within the farm system and the same goes for Ritchie as well. It’s been exciting to see him compete against big league talent so far in spring but based on the fact that he’s not even on the 40-man roster, it’s also feasible to imagine the Braves giving him plenty more time to hone his craft before they bring him up. Lucas Braun and Hayden Harris are also candidates to potentially get some time in the bigs if needed in a spot start situation.
If I didn’t answer any questions for you with this preview, that’s probably because the questions may outnumber the answers. Is this rotation perfectly capable of being one that could help push the Braves into a return to the Postseason? Absolutely. Could this all blow up in the face of the Braves and we’ll be forced to ask serious questions of Alex Anthopoulos’s decision not to add to this rotation? Once again, absolutely.
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This is the position group with the highest amount of variance and volatility and it’s easy to see this going well or going completely sideways. Pitching coach Jeremy Hefner’s going to have a big task on his hands when it comes to guiding this group and new manager Walt Weiss would sure like it if his first season back in the managerial seat coincides with a strong performance from the rotation.
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