When the Nats selected Griff McGarry in the Rule 5 Draft, I was cautiously optimistic. He possesses some of the best stuff in the minor leagues, but has had trouble throwing strikes over the years. Last year, we saw a similar story with Evan Reifert. He had a nasty slider but was nowhere near the zone in Spring Training.
That meant the Nats returned Reifert to the Rays before he ever played a regular season game. There is a chance the same thing could happen with McGarry. However, McGarry had a dominant first outing of Spring Training where he pounded the zone and struck out two batters in a 1-2-3 inning.
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In a wide open bullpen, McGarry probably has the best pure stuff. However, he walked almost 14% of hitters in AA last year as a starter. The crazy thing is that was a big improvement from 2024, when he walked an insane 24% of hitters. With not much to lose, the Nats took a shot on McGarry because his pure stuff grades out as some of the best in the minors.
Last night, we saw what happens when McGarry is throwing strikes. He has an upper 90’s fastball, but that served as a table setter for his insane breaking balls. McGarry has a natural feel for spin and he showed that last night.
He threw two separate breaking balls, a slider and a sweeper. Out of his 10 pitches, 8 of them were breaking balls. The sweeper has a ton of spin, averaging over 3,000 RPM’s last night. However, he threw his harder slider half the time and it got excellent results. McGarry was able to land the pitch in the zone and get whiffs.
It is worth noting that McGarry faced non big leaguers, but if he is around the zone, he can get anyone out. McGarry’s biggest nemesis is his own control rather than the hitters at the plate. Out of all pitchers that threw last night, McGarry had the third highest Stuff+ rating. Stuff+ measures the velocity and movement of a pitch and puts a grade on it, with 100 being average.
Again, McGarry is still a high variance arm. I would not be surprised if he finds his way into a high leverage role, but I also would not be surprised if he was returned to the Phillies pretty quickly. It is all about finding the zone for McGarry.
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Last year McGarry found the zone enough to have success. In 21 starts, he posted a 3.44 ERA despite shaky control. McGarry is similar to Clayton Beeter, with both only needing fringy control to have success.
When McGarry goes on heaters, he is totally unhittable. There was a time last season when he struck out 23 batters in two starts. Crucially, he only walked one batter in 11 innings in those two starts. It is so tantalizing to see what McGarry can do when he is throwing strikes.
One thing I have a minor question about is how he will transition to the bullpen. The Phillies moved him to the bullpen in 2024, and he had his worst year as a pro, with his walks getting out of control. When he went back to starting last year, the results got better. Was that due to mechanical tweaks or is McGarry more comfortable starting?
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If he is more comfortable starting, that could be problematic. He profiles much better as a reliever due to his strike-throwing issues and breaking ball heavy approach. The Nats are going to have to help him learn to prepare as a reliever because that is the role he will be filling this year.
McGarry seemed comfortable in the bullpen last night, but this will be something worth monitoring. He turns 27 in June, so now is the time for Griff McGarry to be unleashed. As a Rule 5 pick, he is going to have to stick in the big leagues for the entire season if the Nats want to hold on to him. Given the Nats are not going to be a contender, there will be room for growing pains here.
In Boston, Paul Toboni actually had a lot of success finding value in the Rule-5 Draft. Justin Slaten and Garrett Whitlock were both Rule 5 picks and are now key pieces to the Red Sox bullpen. Hopefully, McGarry can do the same thing in DC. He certainly has the raw stuff to be a big leaguer, which we saw last night. For McGarry, it will be all about finding the zone.
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