Senators' Difficult Path To The Playoffs: What's It Going To Take?

In defeating the Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche, 7-1 and 5-2, respectively, the Ottawa Senators did more than just collect four regulation points against two of the top four teams in the Western Conference. They served notice to their fanbase that reports of their imminent demise were greatly exaggerated.

After the late-game collapse against the Predators in Nashville and the subsequent home ice loss to the Carolina Hurricanes, last rites were being read by many self-ordained experts.

This is not to suggest the Senators don’t have their work cut out for them to qualify for the playoffs, but the convincing nature of these victories was compelling. The Senators statistically and analytically dominated these highly-touted opponents.

But to make the playoffs, they’ll probably need to at least match their total of 97 from last season.

So, what has to happen?

1) LINUS ULLMARK HAS TO HAPPEN

We were all moved by Ullmark’s interview with Claire Hanna, where he shared the true reasons for needing to step away from the team.

Without putting any undue pressure on someone who clearly carries the weight of the world right now, for this season to tip in the Senators’ favour, Ullmark needs to take off his baseball cap and put his mask back on.

James Reimer has more than adequately acquitted himself since joining the fold and it was encouraging to see Mads Sogaard’s performance against the Golden Knights. Even Leevi Merilainen has delivered victories, and by the way, looked great in both of his AHL starts in Belleville.

That said, there are only so many Hamburglar runs to be had, and the Senators have used theirs.

Without Ullmark back in the crease, performing to his capabilities, this becomes a short conversation.

2) DIVISIONAL DOMINANCE

Of the 58 remaining points to be had, 20 are available against divisional opponents. They currently own a 5-4-3 record against the Atlantic division to date, or 13 of a possible 24 points.

This won’t cut it the rest of the way.

These games are split evenly between home and away and they own a 13-10-4 record at home and 12-11-3 record on the road.

It’s hard to see any advantage in the schedule, so the Senators will simply have to become, be it at home or on the road, what they have failed to be all season: Consistent.

Ideally, the Senators need 15-17 of the 20 points on the table in these games and obviously, three-point games need to be minimized.

It’s definitely a tall order, but if the Buffalo Sabres can extricate themselves from last in the conference to a top-three spot in the division by winning 15 of 17, it’s proven to be possible.

15 of 20 points leaves 19 games to get a minimum of 25 points.

3) ROAD WARRIORS

After they play the Devils on Saturday, the Senators will play eight of their next nine on the road and won’t be back at CTC until February 26th. The season hinges on using this time away to simplify their game, build on the momentum of the last two games, and re-integrate Ullmark into the rotation.

Though the starter against the Devils remains to be determined, it seems safer to have Ullmark return to the crease on the road, where there are fewer distractions.

In the next 10 games, only two of them are against divisional opponents. Four of them will be Western opponents, where the three-point games won’t be an issue.

In fact, only the Philadelphia Flyers and Toronto Maple Leafs are among the teams they are in competition with for the wildcard spots where three-point games will be something to avoid.

For the 16 road points available to them between now and February 26th, a minimum of 10 and ideally 12 or more would be required.

Earning 10 out of 16 road points leaves the Senators with 25 of the minimum 40 points with 11 games remaining to deliver the other 15.

4) OUTSIDE HELP

The Ottawa Senators do not control their own destiny at this point, so there will be scoreboard watching.

Let’s assume for a moment that they get to 97 points, where they were last year. That is the minimum they will need.

Not only do they need to get there and avoid three-point games against playoff rivals, but they also need to hope that those same rivals lose or win in regulation whenever possible.

Since scoreboard-watching has been happening since before the Christmas break, three-point games have not been unusual, and this is particularly true against division rivals.

If this continues to be the case late in the season, the Senators may need to consider pulling the goalie late in tie games against teams they’re trying to catch.

5) HEALTH

Injuries and absences cannot be blamed for the predicament the Senators find themselves in today, but they do need to stay relatively healthy down the stretch. Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson, Tim Stutzle and Lars Eller are going to Milan in February, and it would be great if the Senators got them back in the same condition they left in.

The Senators will finish the regular season on April 15th at home against the Maple Leafs. It would be nice to think that the game might mean something, potentially determining playoff fates.

But there’s a lot of high-quality Senators hockey (and some good luck) that will need to happen between now and then.

Pat Maguire
The Hockey News Ottawa

‘I Don’t Want to Move’: Pending UFA Nick Cousins Would Love To Be Back In Ottawa Next Season

‘I Don’t Want to Move’: Pending UFA Nick Cousins Would Love To Be Back In Ottawa Next Season If the season completely gets away from the Senators, pending UFA Nick Cousins could be a potential trade chip. But Cousins, who was the first star on Wednesday, told The Hockey News this week that he and his family love it here.

Linus Ullmark’s Former Goalie Coach Now Part Of Senators’ Coaching Picture
One-On-One With Senators Captain Brady Tkachuk
Next Level: Ridly Greig ‘Does Whatever Needs To Be Done To Win’

Read the full article here