The road to the College Football Playoff is a high-stakes freeway, and the margin for error is razor-thin. Texas and Penn State, the preseason No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the AP Top 25, have already hit early detours, leaving their playoff hopes teetering. Every remaining game is a critical intersection — some teams still have open lanes to make a statement, while others are stuck in traffic, fighting to stay in contention.
This third edition of the College Football Playoff Traffic Report offers an updated look at where each Power Four team stands on the road to the playoff, organized into tiers:
🚀 On cruise control
🟢 In the driver’s seat
🟡 Bumper-to-bumper
🔴 Sitting on the shoulder
⛔ Out of the race
College football rankings: Ohio State, Miami, Oregon locked in tight battle for No. 1 spot in CBS Sports 136
Chip Patterson
The report breaks down which 30 teams are best positioned to reach the CFP, which squads are jockeying for position and which are starting to run out of margin for error or are effectively eliminated.
Let’s take a look at the road to the CFP ahead of Week 7.
🚀 On cruise control
Look elite, have a clear path and have a lot of margin for error
No. 1 Ohio State (5-0): The road to a Big Ten title looks a lot less daunting now that Penn State has stumbled. While national attention gravitates toward star receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, it’s the Matt Patricia-led defense — which hasn’t allowed double digits in a game — that’s powering the Buckeyes’ steady dominance.
No. 2 Miami (5-0): Mario Cristobal’s Hurricanes have built one of the most complete résumés in college football. With three wins over teams still ranked in the AP Top 25 — more than any team in the country — Miami looks battle-tested and balanced. The Hurricanes are only one game into the ACC schedule but find themselves in a familiar position to last season before momentum slipped away in November.
No. 3 Oregon (5-0): The Ducks clearly look like one of the best teams in the country right now. Their win at Penn State gave them a marquee road victory, and with Oregon favored by more than a touchdown according to FanDuel Sportsbook in its only game vs. a ranked opponent left on the schedule — No. 7 Indiana this Saturday on CBS — Oregon has a clear path ahead. The Ducks are one of just five teams nationally ranked top 15 in both offensive and defensive success rate against FBS opponents, proving their case as a balanced contender.
No. 4 Ole Miss (5-0): With one of the SEC’s lighter paths ahead, the Rebels can afford a loss at No. 10 Georgia and No. 6 Oklahoma and still stay in the mix. The key is avoiding slip-ups elsewhere. If Ole Miss handles business, the Egg Bowl at Mississippi State could set up a win-and-in playoff scenario.
No. 8 Alabama (4-1): Whatever version of the Crimson Tide lost in Week 1 at Florida State isn’t the one we’re seeing now. Alabama has quickly turned into one of the nation’s hottest teams, fueled by an offense that’s finally found balance with running back Jam Miller emerging alongside quarterback Ty Simpson and a deep group of receivers. Still, a demanding SEC slate lies ahead.
🟢 In the driver’s seat
Control their path, but still vulnerable — one or two unexpected hiccups could matter
No. 5 Texas A&M (5-0): While much of the SEC is taking on losses around them, the Aggies are steady — and they’ve got a marquee road win at No. 16 Notre Dame in their back pocket. After showing some inconsistency early, Texas A&M’s defense has tightened up, smothering Auburn and Mississippi State for a combined nine sacks the past two weeks. With rival Texas now out of the AP Top 25, only No. 11 LSU and No. 14 Missouri remain as ranked opponents on the Aggies’ schedule.
No. 9 Texas Tech (5-0): Is there a team in the Big 12 that can beat the Red Raiders? Through the first month of the season, it doesn’t look like it — but this remains one of the most unpredictable conferences in college football. An upcoming road trip to No. 21 Arizona State in Week 8 will serve as an important hurdle before a late-season stretch that could define Texas Tech’s CFP hopes.
No. 10 Georgia (4-1): The Bulldogs finally covered the spread for the first time this season after starting 0-4 against the line set by oddsmakers. While that stat doesn’t matter much for Georgia’s playoff push, it does hint at a team still finding its top gear. Even so, few programs are better positioned in the SEC — two of their toughest opponents are already behind them, with No. 4 Ole Miss the only remaining ranked team on the schedule. A rivalry matchup against Georgia Tech in the final week could still carry playoff implications.
No. 7 Indiana (5-0): The Hoosiers’ formula to make it back to the CFP is simple: keep things respectable at No. 3 Oregon and pile up style points everywhere else. That’s essentially what Curt Cignetti’s team did last season, when Indiana led the FBS in average margin of victory. If Indiana upsets the Ducks on the road the Big Ten title conversation won’t just include the Hoosiers — it might revolve around them.
No. 6 Oklahoma (5-0): The injury to John Mateer adds a layer of uncertainty for the Sooners. If they drop a game — possibly the Red River Shootout — or even two without him, the selection committee’s evaluation of those losses will be fascinating to watch. What isn’t up for debate is Brent Venables’ defense, which ranks No. 4 nationally in success rate, No. 2 in scoring defense, and No. 7 in defensive EPA per play.
No. 11 LSU (4-1): Can the Tigers avoid a mid-season spiral like the one that cost them in 2024? LSU’s offense has struggled for the most part with quarterback Garrett Nussmeier not at full strength. Coming off a bye week, the Bayou Bengals have a chance to regroup and keep their CFP hopes alive.
No. 16 Notre Dame (3-2): Despite two losses, the Fighting Irish have arguably faced the toughest competition of any team with a similar record. Still, Notre Dame doesn’t have many opportunities to bolster its résumé, with no opponent currently ranked in the national polls. If it runs the table, the final record could feature eight Power Four wins along with victories over Boise State and Navy — two of the stronger Group of Six programs.
No. 15 Michigan (4-1): The Wolverines certainly have their flaws, but what helps them most is their schedule. No Oregon. No Indiana. No Illinois. No Penn State (though that wouldn’t have been an insurmountable hurdle). Michigan can’t get greedy, but if the Wolverines navigate the slate successfully, they’ll be in prime position to challenge rival No. 1 Ohio State at the end of the season with a spot in the Big Ten title game, or at least being in the at-large CFP conversation, on the line.
No. 14 Missouri (5-0): The Tigers are off to a perfect start, buoyed by the second-longest active home win streak in the FBS — and they haven’t even left Columbia yet. That streak will be tested this Saturday when No. 8 Alabama comes to Memorial Stadium. Missouri will need to keep winning at home to maintain momentum, especially after struggling on the road last season, going just 1-3 in SEC away games.
No. 12 Tennessee (4-1): The Volunteers still have chances to strengthen their résumé, but those opportunities double as landmines that could derail a return to the CFP. Winning in Tuscaloosa on the Third Saturday in October — something Tennessee hasn’t done in 22 years — would go a long way toward proving the Volunteers belong in the conversation.
No. 13 Georgia Tech (5-0): The Yellow Jackets are positioned near the top of the ACC standings. With Florida State already down two losses and Georgia Tech avoiding matchups with both Miami and Virginia, plus a favorable path around Louisville and SMU, the schedule is working in their favor.
No. 19 Virginia (5-1): It’s time to take the Cavaliers seriously as an ACC contender. Don’t be misled by the lone blemish — that loss at NC State was technically a nonconference game. Virginia sits 3-0 in ACC play for the first time since 2007 after back-to-back overtime wins against Florida State and at Louisville. With Clemson, Georgia Tech and Miami missing from the remaining schedule, the Cavaliers have a real shot to stay in the mix deep into November.
No. 18 BYU (5-0): Despite the offseason departure of Jake Retzlaff, BYU might have actually upgraded at quarterback. Transfer Bear Bachmeier has provided a spark with seven passing touchdowns and five more on the ground. A challenging stretch looms starting with the Holy War against Utah, followed by consecutive road trips to No. 21 Iowa State and No. 9 Texas Tech.
🟡 Bumper-to-bumper
Alive, but their path is crowded, narrow or highly dependent on others
Texas (3-2): It’s not even mid-October, and the playoff hopes for the preseason No. 1 are already hanging by a thread. Arch Manning hasn’t quite lived up to the unprecedented hype — though not all of that falls on him — and the Longhorns’ issues run deeper than quarterback play. The one saving grace remains the defense, which, despite surrendering three touchdowns in the loss at Florida, still ranks fifth nationally in scoring.
No. 20 Vanderbilt (5-1): The Commodores have gone from afterthought to respectable contender under coach Clark Lea. However, the loss at Alabama was a reminder they’re not among the SEC’s heavyweights, but this is a far more complete team than in recent years. With a bye week to reset, Vanderbilt will look to prove it still belongs in the conference conversation when it hosts No. 11 LSU and No. 14 Missouri in back-to-back weeks.
No. 17 Illinois (5-1): A huge test awaits the Fighting Illini in Week 7 when No. 1 Ohio State comes to Champaign. Illinois has knocked off three consecutive ranked opponents at home dating back to last season, but none tougher than the Buckeyes. A win would put the CFP conversation firmly back on the table for the Fighting Illini, while a loss could drop them back into the middle of the pack in a crowded Big Ten.
USC (4-1): Maybe Lincoln Riley hasn’t fully solved those Big Ten road woes yet. The Trojans will need to play near-flawless if they want to stay in the conference title race and keep their playoff hopes alive, with upcoming trips to Nebraska and No. 3 Oregon after a visit to No. 16 Notre Dame in a couple of weeks. But first, a critical showdown with No. 15 Michigan looms in Week 7.
No. 21 Arizona State (4-1): The Sun Devils are not for the faint of heart. A pair of game-winning field goals have made the difference between a 2-0 start in the Big 12 and a more precarious position in the CFP picture. Arizona State faces a key test with a trip to Utah in Week 7, followed by a pivotal matchup against No. 9 Texas Tech in Week 8.
Utah (4-1): Speaking of the Utes, a healthy Devon Dampier is a major boost after the star quarterback wasn’t at full strength in the Week 4 loss to Texas Tech. A well-timed bye week sets the stage for key matchups against No. 21 Arizona State and the Holy War at No. 18 BYU. Win both, and Utah is very much back in the CFP conversation.
Cincinnati (4-1): The Bearcats are just a bad throw away from being unbeaten. In their loss at Nebraska, a costly mistake by Brendan Sorsby kept them from a perfect start, but he’s been nearly flawless since, throwing 12 touchdowns without any interceptions during a four-game win streak. Cincinnati is surging back into the conversation for the Big 12 title race and CFP picture.
Washington (4-1): The Huskies scored 24 unanswered points in the final 19 minutes against Maryland to avoid consecutive losses and preserve their playoff hopes. The path ahead is still challenging, with No. 3 Oregon, No. 15 Michigan and No. 17 Illinois remaining on the schedule, but the opportunity is there to make a push.
Nebraska (4-1): The narrative might be changing in Lincoln. The Huskers had every reason to lose to Michigan State in Week 6, with Dylan Raiola under constant pressure and the offensive line allowing 12 sacks combined over the past two games, but the team gutted out a win. Nebraska is the only Big Ten team without a remaining opponent currently ranked in the AP Top 25, giving them a clear path to finish strong in Year 3 under Matt Rhule.
No. 22 Iowa State (5-1): One loss in the Big 12 doesn’t knock the Cyclones out of the title race, but it does shrink their margin for error, with each remaining week being a grind after the loss at Cincinnati. Losing both starting cornerbacks is a major blow for the defense, which will have to step up if the Cyclones hope to stay in contention.
Duke (4-2): While much of the ACC spotlight shines elsewhere, the Blue Devils are quietly emerging as a dark-horse contender, riding a 3-0 start in conference play. Duke does face No. 13 Georgia Tech in Week 8 and No. 19 Virginia in November, but both key matchups come at home in Durham, giving the Blue Devils a clear chance to make a statement.
TCU (4-1): The Horned Frogs are right in the thick of the crowded Big 12 conversation. Two out-of-conference wins against ACC opponents bolster the résumé, but it’s all about building momentum in league play. TCU hits the road for two of the next three weeks before hosting No. 22 Iowa State in early November, marking its first test against a ranked opponent this season.
🔴 Sitting on the shoulder
Technically alive, but path is long, risky or dependent entirely on outside chaos
ACC: California, No. 25 Florida State, Louisville, NC State, SMU
Big 12: Arizona, Baylor, Houston, Kansas
Big Ten: Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, Penn State
SEC: Auburn, Florida, South Carolina, Mississippi State
⛔ Out of the race
Effectively eliminated or realistically cannot make the playoff
ACC: Boston College, Clemson, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12: Colorado, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, UCF, West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan State, Northwestern, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
SEC: Arkansas, Kentucky
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