Week 5 NFL odds, picks, predictions: Our Week 5 NFL best bets

Week 5 of the NFL season started with another wacky Thursday Night Football game in which the San Francisco 49ers prevailed 26-23 in overtime over the Los Angeles Rams, led by a gutsy San Francisco defense and a banged-up Mac Jones. The game knocked out a ton of money-line parlays and teasers for bettors, and also

What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?

Our NFL handicapping trio of Ed Feng, Michael Fiddle and Matt Jacob combine to give their best bets for Week 5 of the NFL season. This article will be updated throughout the weekend.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 36.5) at Cleveland Browns (in London, England)

Jacob: I scored an easy winner last week with Detroit RB David Montgomery falling short — way short — of his rushing projection against Cleveland’s fierce front seven. I even accurately predicted that Montgomery would take a workload backseat to backfield mate Jahmyr Gibbs, who had a 15-9 edge in carries.

What I didn’t foresee, though, was Gibbs turning his 15 carries into 91 yards against that aforementioned fierce front seven — the same one that held Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry to a combined 53 rushing yards on 27 carries in the previous two games.

Was Gibbs’ effort a sign that the Browns’ run defense is leaking? Or was it a one-off outlier? I’m betting on the latter. Gibbs remains the only running back to crack 45 yards against Cleveland. And if you throw in Montgomery (15 yards) and Cincinnati’s Chase Brown (43 yards on 21 carries in Week 1), the Browns have held four top-tier running backs to a total of 111 yards on 57 carries — that’s 1.95 yards per rush.

Cleveland’s defense will return to form in London and put the clamps on Minnesota’s Jordan Mason, who had just 57 yards on 15 carries against Pittsburgh last week. The Steelers, by the way, rank 19th against the run (122 yards per game). The Browns? They’re still No. 1 (70.2 YPG).

Bet: Jordan Mason under 67.5 rushing yards (-118)

Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-7, 48)

Feng: Colts QB Daniel Jones has looked excellent in the early part of the 2025 NFL season. Part of his success in leading Indianapolis to a 3-0 start was zero interceptions in those three games. However, this type of turnover prevention is unsustainable in the random, chaotic world of the NFL, and Jones threw two picks last week in a 27-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. The markets haven’t quite adjusted back to Jones as near NFL average in turnover prevention.

My model gives a 49.8% chance that Jones throws an interception against Las Vegas, which provides plenty of value compared to this 45.5% break-even probability.

Bet: Daniel Jones over 0.5 interceptions (+120)

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-2, 42)

Jacob: Jaxson Dart has gotten a lot of love this week, and rightfully so. The Giants’ rookie QB was sensational in his team’s 21-18 upset of the Chargers. Lost amid all the hype, though, was this fact: Dart only completed 13-of-20 passes for 111 yards. Oh, and in a not-so-insignificant piece of related news, he lost his star wide receiver (Malik Nabers) to a season-ending knee injury.

Now Dart makes his first road start, albeit against the winless Saints. Still, I can’t imagine Brian Daboll removing Dart’s training wheels and sketching out a pass-happy game plan in a hostile environment — even against a Saints defense that is allowing nearly 8 yards per pass attempt (sixth highest in the league) with a 10-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Will Dart surpass last week’s total of 111 passing yards in the Big Easy on Sunday? Probably. Will he increase it by more than 70% — which he’d need to do to eclipse his passing yards prop projection? Highly doubtful, especially without Nabers.

Bet: Jaxson Dart Under 179.5 passing yards (-115)

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 43.5)

Jacob: Bo Nix is coming off a career-best 326-yard performance in Monday night’s blowout victory over the Bengals at home. Those last two words — at home — are significant for this reason: The Broncos’ second-year QB has now thrown for more than 275 yards five times in 21 regular-season NFL starts. Location of those five games? Denver.

Nix has been held below 220 passing yards in eight of 11 road outings (and cleared 223 yards just twice). So far this year, Denver has traveled to Indianapolis and Los Angeles (Chargers). Nix’s respective passing totals in those contests: 206 and 153 yards.

Now comes Nix’s first-ever visit to the City of Brotherly Love. Awaiting his arrival will be a very good — and very angry — defense that fell asleep in the second half last week against Baker Mayfield and nearly lost an unlosable game at Tampa Bay. I fully expect that defense to play a full 60 minutes Sunday and bottle up Nix — just as it did Dak Prescott (188 yards in Week 1), Patrick Mahomes (187 yards in Week 2) and Matthew Stafford (196 yards in Week 3).

Bet: Bo Nix under 219.5 passing yards (-115)

Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 47)

Fiddle: Jayden Daniels is returning this week after a two-week absence due to a sprained left knee. The injury was sustained during the Week 2 loss to the Green Bay Packers, where Daniels finished the game before undergoing an MRI in the days after. The most notable impact in Daniels’ play was the lack of rushing, as he finished with just 17 yards on the ground.

In the pricing for Week 5 against the Chargers, the rushing line is right back to where it always is for Daniels — in the mid 40s. Add in the fact that the Commanders are missing weapons in Austin Ekeler, Terry McLaurin, and possibly Deebo Samuel, and the ability to spy Daniels as a key threat increases.

Play the under on his rushing prop before it drops a few yards, I think this closes around 40.5.

Bet: Jayden Daniels Under 45.5 rushing yards (-120)

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 46.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Fiddle: Earlier in the week my best bet for this game was over 45.5 points in the game. Now seeing the market move up a full point, I am going to find another way to attack a similar angle.

Both of these teams rank in the top six in Pass Rate Over Expectation; indicating that in rushing situations these teams are opting to throw. For the Kansas City Chiefs, this has been true throughout Patrick Mahomes’ career, making this a sticky stat and not simply just noise through four games.

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Add in the reintegration of Xavier Worthy and the growth of Tyquon Thornton, and the Chiefs now have players who can stretch the field, with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Hollywood Brown operating in the short range and Travis Kelce being a zone killer in the intermediate. The field is open for Mahomes again.

This play also allows us to take the best number in the market as 250 or higher is priced at every other book besides BetMGM, so give me the over on Mahomes passing yards. Hopefully, I end up with closing line value, am directionally correct on the prop and game total and have the football perspective to back it up.

Bet: Patrick Mahomes over 248.5 passing yards (-115)

Feng: Two weeks ago, it seemed like Kansas City might be declining. They were 0-2 and deemed offensively challenged. Now, the Chiefs have won two games, both by a double-digit margin (they only had four such wins in 2024). Worthy returned from injury last week and had 83 receiving yards on eight targets.

Jacksonville beat San Francisco 26-21 last week, but the Jaguars had few total yards (330 to 389) and benefitted from a plus-four turnover margin. RB Travis Etienne will not continue to rush for 6.1 yards per carry (4.5 NFL average). My model, which combines data from the current season adjusted for opposition with preseason priors, has Kansas City by 4.9 points.

Bet: Kansas City -3.5

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