Virginia vs. Florida State prediction, odds, line, time: 2025 college football Week 5 picks by proven model

The eighth-ranked Florida State Seminoles will look to remain undefeated when they take on the Virginia Cavaliers in an ACC matchup on Friday. FSU is coming off a 66-10 win over Kent State on Saturday, while Virginia downed Stanford 48-20. The Seminoles (3-0), who are opening their conference slate, were 0-4 on the road last year. The Cavaliers (3-1, 1-0 ACC), who have won two in a row, were 2-4 on their home field in 2024.

Kickoff from Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Va., is at 7 p.m. ET. Florida State leads the all-time series 15-4, but Virginia has won two of the last three meetings. The Seminoles are 7-point favorites in the latest Florida State vs. Virginia odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 60.5 via SportsLine consensus. Before making any Florida State vs. Virginia picks, check out the college football predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model. 

New users can also target the DraftKings promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket.

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and is a profitable 35-22 combined on money-line and over/under college football picks since the beginning of 2024. Anybody following its college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.  

Now, the model has set its sights on Florida State vs. Virginia. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Virginia vs. Florida State:

Why Florida State can cover

Senior transfer quarterback Tommy Castellanos helps power the Seminoles. The dual threat has completed 71.1% of his passes for 594 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. He has also rushed 27 times for 139 yards (5.1 average) and three touchdowns. Against Kent State, he completed 10 of 13 passes for 205 yards, while rushing seven times for 54 yards and two touchdowns.

Castellanos’ top target has been junior transfer wide receiver Duce Robinson. He is in his first season with the program after spending two years at USC. He leads the Seminoles with eight receptions for 199 yards (24.9 average) and two touchdowns. In a 77-3 win over East Texas A&M, he caught five passes for 173 yards (34.6 average) and two touchdowns. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why Virginia can cover

Sixth-year senior transfer Chandler Morris is off to a fast start to his Cavaliers career. The former North Texas, TCU and Oklahoma standout has completed 85 of 120 passes for 1,050 yards and eight touchdowns with one interception. He has also rushed 14 times for 132 yards (9.4 average) and one touchdown. In six collegiate seasons, he has completed 64.9% of his passes for 7,235 yards and 55 touchdowns with 18 interceptions.

Senior transfer J’Mari Taylor powers the Virginia ground attack. Taylor, who spent the past four years at North Carolina Central, has carried 48 times for 298 yards (6.2 average) and six touchdowns. In a 35-31 loss to North Carolina State on Sept. 6, he rushed 17 times for 150 yards (8.8 average) and three touchdowns. He carried 15 times for 85 yards (5.7 average) in Saturday’s win over Stanford. See which team to back at SportsLine.

New users can also check out the latest FanDuel promo code and get $300 in bonus bets instantly at FanDuel if your $5 bet wins. 

How to make Florida State vs. Virginia picks

SportsLine’s model is going Under on the total, projecting 53 combined points. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Florida State vs. Virginia, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Florida State vs. Virginia spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that finished up over $2,000 on its FBS college football picks since its inception, and find out.