Katie Taylor vs. Amanda Serrano 3 predictions, odds, picks: Will the third time be the charm for Serrano?

For years, women’s boxing was essentially an afterthought for the global audience of the sweet science — hidden in the background and buried on male-dominated cards. But on Friday night, at the most iconic arena in the world — Madison Square Garden — the spotlight belongs entirely to the women.

After two unforgettable wars, Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano are set to do it all over again for the undisputed super lightweight title in the main event of perhaps the greatest card in women’s boxing history. And that’s not the only undisputed title fight on offer either. Taylor vs. Serrano is one of three undisputed championship contests on Friday’s eight-fight, all-women’s card that will surely be enjoyed by a multi-million audience on Netflix.

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Three undisputed title fights, two unification bouts, the WBC interim world title, a top prospect, and a contender looking to go again — what a card we have in front of us on Friday. Let’s dive in and break it all down.

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Undisputed super lightweight title: Katie Taylor (+160) vs. Amanda Serrano (-188)

Taylor vs. Serrano is no ordinary trilogy.

Fight fans are used to seeing the third installment of a rivalry when the series is tied 1–1 — or, in the case of Tyson Fury vs. Deontay Wilder 3, 1-0-1. It’s rare we get a trilogy when the same fighter has won both prior meetings. A recent example is Fury vs. Derek Chisora, but let’s be honest: Few were clamoring to see that a third time.

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Each of the first three bouts between Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez had an element of controversy, prompting a fourth fight despite Pacquiao being up 2-0-1. If you go further back, to the mid-1970s, Alan Minter and Kevin Finnegan fought three times for the British middleweight title. Minter won all three, but many felt Finnegan was unlucky not to get the nod in at least one of them.

Taylor vs. Serrano is a different animal altogether. Taylor leads 2-0 — yet, somehow, enters the third fight as the underdog. That might seem hard to fathom at first glance, but with a deeper analysis, it begins to make sense.

While the consensus was that Taylor deserved the nod in their first bout, many believed Serrano should’ve had her hand raised in the rematch. Taylor won it on all three scorecards by a single point — 95-94 — the same as our card at Uncrowned.

Taylor’s best assets — her sharp hands and fleet feet — are attributes that tend to diminish with age and mileage. Some believed that moment had already arrived following her loss to Chantelle Cameron in May 2023. But, as she so often does, Taylor dug deep and found a way to edge the rematch six months later. Now 39, with another 10 grueling rounds on the clock, time is running out on one of boxing’s most decorated careers.

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After her second win over Serrano, Taylor admitted — for the first time — that the end is near. And as the old saying goes, once a fighter starts talking retirement, they’ve already got one foot out the door. That’s when the decline tends to show.

Serrano, at 36, isn’t a spring chicken either, but her style is less reliant on youth and reflexes. And in women’s boxing, where the punches carry less weight than in the men’s game, Serrano has more manageable wear and tear than a male fighter with her style and pro experience would.

Taylor and Serrano have given us two razor-close fights already, and I expect the third to be just as fierce — but this time, I see Serrano walking away with her hand raised.

Pick: Serrano.

Undisputed super featherweight title: Alycia Baumgardner (-1800) vs. Jennifer Miranda (+1000)

In the night’s co-feature, Alycia Baumgardner puts her undisputed title on the line against Jennifer Miranda in Baumgardner’s debut for Jake Paul’s Most Valuable Promotions. Baumgardner was last in action this past September, when her fight with Define Person ended in an early technical decision due to a cut sustained by Persoon during the fight.

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Although unbeaten, Miranda is largely an unknown quantity, and at 38 years old, this is likely her one and only chance at establishing herself as an elite fighter. Nothing on her résumé or amateur pedigree suggests she’ll be able to accomplish that against Baumgardner, though.

Baumgardner, now under Derrick James, should be too athletic and strong for Miranda — who is a long-range counterpuncher but often neglects defense. As soon as Baumgardner breaks the distance, she should be able to control the proceedings up close and consistently connect with power shots on Miranda. Miranda also has slow feet, so it won’t be difficult to pin her down.

Pick: Baumgardner.

Unified super middleweight title: Savannah Marshall (-700) vs. Shadasia Green (+475)

Savannah Marshall has been sidelined since she defeated Franchon Crews-Dezurn to win the undisputed super middleweight title two years ago. Shadasia Green’s lone career defeat came at the hands of Crews-Dezurn.

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Green was last in action against Melinda Watpool this past November, where she edged a controversial split decision. She was outworked for large periods during the fight and fatigued in the mid-rounds after a strong start.

The big-punching Marshall will be able to capitalize on these shortcomings as she fights in an aggressive manner. I expect Marshall’s work rate and experience to be enough to overcome Green.

Pick: Marshall.

Unified super bantamweight title: Ellie Scotney (-700) vs. Yamileth Mercado (+525)

It’s been a faultless pro journey for Ellie Scotney, who, at 10-0, has established herself as the No. 1 fighter at 122 pounds. Scotney claimed the IBF super bantamweight title with victory over Cherneka Johnson in June 2023 and then added the WBO title to her name by beating Segolene Lefebvre.

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Mercado has been a champion for almost six years. What she lacks in amateur pedigree, she makes up for in her pro experience. The Mexican was soundly beaten by Amanda Serrano up at featherweight in 2021, but down at super bantamweight, she has made nine successful defenses.

Perhaps the biggest was her win over Ramla Ali in June 2024. Although not landing the eye-catching punches, Mercado overwhelmed Ali with volume on that occasion. Scotney is one of the finest technicians in the women’s game. She places her punches well and they are always delivered with crispness. Scotney’s head movement and footwork will also be a challenge for Mercado to overcome.

Pick: Scotney.

Undisputed bantamweight title: Cherneka Johnson vs. Shurretta Metcalf

Since losing her super bantamweight title to Scotney, Johnson moved down to bantamweight and claimed the WBA title there with a win over Nina Hughes, which was repeated this past March by stoppage.

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Metcalf is coming off back-to-back triumphs over Miyo Yoshida, the second of which saw her crowned IBF bantamweight champion. Both wins were controversial, which explains Metcalf’s position as a significant underdog in this matchup.

Johnson, on the other hand, looks to have found her weight class at bantamweight, as she is in the midst of her prime years at 30.

Pick: Johnson.

Undercard quick picks:

• WBC interim super lightweight title: Chantelle Cameron (-2000) def. Jessica Camara (+1200)

• Super bantamweight: Ramla Ali def. Lila Furtado

• Middleweight: Tamm Thibeault def. Mary Casamassa