When we’re scouting the player pools for the fresh fantasy football season, we’re always looking for players who can improve or at least maintain a productive level of play. Normally, when we think of regression, it’s a dirty word.
But sometimes you can profit even when production regresses. Allow me to introduce you to the Regress and Win concept.
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I did some data mining from last year’s stats and this year’s ADP and tried to find players who could regress in 2025 (i.e. play worse than the previous season) and yet still be draft-day values because their ADPs do not match their final ranking from last season. That’s what I mean when I identify a Regress and Win player. The market is giving you a possible buying opportunity with these guys.
Earlier this week we debuted this series with the wide receivers. Today, we’ll audit the tight ends.
I do not mean to suggest that every player who fits a Regress and Win frame (strong 2024 finish, skeptical 2025 ADP) will be on my shopping list. I take this stuff on a case-by-case basis. Let’s look at some of the tight ends who fall into the category and I’ll share my early notes and initial leans.
Regress and Win Tight Ends to Consider
Hunter Henry, Patriots (TE12 in 2024, TE21 in 2025 ADP)
Henry was perhaps the only New England pass-catcher to quickly bond with rookie QB Drake Maye last year; if you prorate Henry’s 10 games with Maye to a full schedule, you’re looking at 76 catches and 765 yards. Those numbers are probably unattainable for Henry now that New England has beefed up the receiver room (notably adding Stefon Diggs and drafting intriguing rookie Kyle Williams), but the entire Patriots offense should have more octane, too — more scoring juice (the rehiring of OC Josh McDaniels was a plus-move).
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Early Lean: Henry had an injury-prone tag on him earlier in his career, but he’s missed a modest four games since joining the Patriots four seasons ago. Henry looks like one of those boring value veterans to target for the later stages of your draft.
Pat Freiermuth, Steelers (TE10 in 2024, TE19 in 2025 ADP)
The Steelers steered a modest 78 targets to Freiermuth in 2024, but perhaps they should have called his number more often. He had an outstanding 83.3% catch rate and was especially useful in the red area, securing 11-of-13 targets for 94 yards and five touchdowns. Every pass to Freiermuth inside the 10 went for a score.
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Early Lean: Whatever you might think of mercurial QB Aaron Rodgers, he likely represents an upgrade over what the Steelers had at quarterback last year. And Pittsburgh’s passing game needs Freiermuth to be a regular contributor, given the stark WR depth chart after top target DK Metcalf. I already have some Freiermuth shares and I’ll continue to add them at this draft price.
Tucker Kraft, Packers (TE9 in 2024, TE12 in 2025 ADP)
Kraft’s breakout year was a combination of splash plays (14.1 YPC) and goal-line equity (a team-best seven touchdown catches). He led the position in yards after the catch, gobbling up 9.6 YAC on his 50 catches.
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Early Lean: I understand the Packers run a spread-it-around passing game (no one has seen 100 targets since Davante Adams left), but at least most of Kraft’s opportunities are devised with a big gain or a touchdown in mind. Kraft also received a few snaps under center for sneak purposes; perhaps this could lead to an extra touchdown or two in 2025. Kraft is unlikely to ever be a true target hog, but he’s still well-positioned to beat the market.
Jonnu Smith, Dolphins (TE4 in 2024, TE8 in 2025 ADP)
Smith’s monster year came out of nowhere, as he was the TE17, TE53 and TE33 in his three previous seasons. Miami’s offense was constantly reshaping itself last year, dealing with QB Tua Tagovailoa’s injuries and limitations and also dealing with nagging Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle injuries. Smith wants to be rewarded for his breakout year and skipped both Miami’s voluntary and mandatory workouts this spring.
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Early Lean: Ultimately, the Smith call is a difficult one. On the plus side, Miami wants to get the ball out of Tagovailoa’s hands quickly, and that plays into Smith’s skill set — it’s largely where the breakout year came from. But a healthy Hill and Waddle are likely bets to positively regress too, and seasoned fantasy players are trained to distrust career years that come calling in a player’s age-29 season. I’m not dismissing Smith’s current market price out of hand, but I can at least validate why drafters are treading carefully here.
Zach Ertz, Commanders (TE8 in 2024, TE20 in 2025 ADP)
The Washington passing game is a curious mix of youth and experience — sophomore QB Jayden Daniels is the signature player, of course, but he’s throwing to a pair of older wideouts (Terry McLaurin turns 30 in September, Deebo Samuel is 29). And then there’s the veteran Ertz, who turns 35 around midseason. When Ertz debuted with the Eagles back in 2013, Chip Kelly was his head coach, Nick Foles was Philly’s Pro-Bowl quarterback and LeSean McCoy was the star running back. Ertz has taken a few laps around the track.
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Early Lean: The key to Ertz’s continued senior relevance is play-caller Kliff Kingsbury, who knew Ertz from their Arizona days. Kingsbury dialed up 91 targets for Ertz last year (eighth at the position) and seven touchdowns (tied for fourth), along with a couple of two-point conversions. Yes, Ertz is in his catch-and-fall days — he had the lowest yards after catch among qualified tight ends last year. But at least he still runs reliable routes and makes the catch to begin with. He can easily meet or exceed this modest buy-in price.
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