Thanks to the previous regime’s involvement in failing to accurately verify the status of Evgenii Dadonov’s modified no-trade clause and list of teams that he could not be moved to, the Ottawa Senators were punished by the league – having to forfeit a first-round selection by the 2026 NHL Draft.
In the aftermath of the Draft Lottery that was conducted live on May 5 from the NHL’s offices in Secaucus, N.J., the Senators had 48 hours to notify the league of their intentions of keeping the 21st overall selection in the 2025 NHL Draft.
In electing to hold onto this year’s selection, the Senators raised some eyebrows around the league.
I spoke with Cam Robinson, the content director and director of film scouting for Elite-Prospects, about that choice and the 2025 NHL Draft.
“In a vacuum, it’s a somewhat surprising decision,” explained Robinson when describing the choice to keep the pick. “But, it can be justified in a couple of ways.
“The first is that the organization either knows something we do not or are simply hoping that they are let off the hook in a similar way that New Jersey was let off the hook for the Ilya Kovalchuk contract punishment.”
After being dealt from the Atlanta Thrashers to the New Jersey Devils, Ilya Kovalchuk signed an extension for 17 years and $102 million. Within 48 hours, the league stepped in and vetoed the agreement citing that its structure was designed to circumvent the salary cap.
It was hard to argue with the decision as Kovalchuk was slated to earn $95 million across the first 10 years of the deal before earning just $7 million across the contract’s final seven seasons when Kovalchuk would be in his 40s and unlikely to be playing.
Eventually, Kovalchuk would sign a new 15-year extension that was not radically dissimilar from the one he had signed, but because of the Devils’ attempt to circumvent the cap, they were punished by the league. The organization was fined $3 million and lost two draft selections: a 2011 third-round pick and first-round pick of its choice for one of the 2011, 2012, 2013, or 2014 drafts.
Sound familiar?
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New Jersey’s punishment was ultimately lessened, with half the fine being repaid to the organization. After delaying the forfeiture of a draft selection until the final year, the league returned a 2014 first-round pick back to the Devils with conditions. The Devils would not receive the selection based on placement in the standings but would inherit the final selection of the first round that they were not permitted to trade.
That this error occurred under previous ownership by a general manager who was quickly forced to resign a little over a month into Michael Andlauer’s ownership and that the league and estate downplayed the events and its potential ramifications during the sale process, it would be hard to blame Andlauer for being miffed at this harsh punishment.
Andlauer has previously expressed hope that their punishment could be reduced in time, but Robinson highlighted a possibility that general manager Steve Staios has echoed.
“The less conspiratorial thought is that the club is betting on its upwards trend and betting on the guys in the room,” said Robinson. “The 21st overall pick this year will help them sooner, and they’ll continue to grow and perhaps end up giving up a later pick in 2026.”
Progress does not always have to be linear, however, and that is the gamble the Senators are taking. Given the talent of their young core and the experience they gained by playing in the postseason for the first time, it is easy to fall into the assumption that the team will continue to get better.
The real risk is that the league may ultimately decide not to return the Senators’ next year’s selection.
Why The Kovalchuk Precedent Won’t Help The Ottawa Senators Retrieve Their Forfeited First-Round PickIn November 2023, the NHL came down hard on the Ottawa Senators, announcing they would have to forfeit a first-round draft pick due to the mishandling of their July 2021 trade of Evgenii Dadonov to the Vegas Golden Knights.
If the Senators take a step back, this prospective 2026 pick may be exponentially more valuable than this year’s iteration.
Robinson shed some light on this year’s draft class stacks up.
“Generally, this class should be considered slightly below average,” he explained. “It lacks a generational, or near-generational talent to anchor the top of the class. The high-end has more risks than normal and the overall depth is on the weaker side.
“However, it’s not a ‘bad’ draft. It has the feeling of the 2017 class with lots of centre options early. Some will hit. Some will miss.”
Centres Nico Hischier, Nolan Patrick, and Elias Pettersson were taken in the 2017 top-five, but value was found later in the draft in Martin Necas (12th), Nick Suzuki (13th), Josh Norris (19th), Robert Thomas (20th), and Filip Chytil (21st).
With the 21st overall selection, the Senators are situated where they will have to make a calculated choice.
“This is the portion of the draft where teams will have to ‘settle,'” Robinson stated. “By that, I mean they will be accepting a player with risks or warts. It’s just a matter of picking your poison.
“You can likely get a high-octane winger who lacks size and simple translatability – like a Cole Reschny or Ben Kindel. Or you can target a more ‘sure thing’ that lacks higher impact – like a Logan Hensler.”
There are a few sleepers that Robinson is higher on than some of the consensus picks who should be available in the Senators’ range – Vaclav Nestrasil, Jacob Rombach, and Shane Vansaghi.
“(Nestrasil)’s a 6’5″ winger who is raw and unrefined, but flashes terrific upside. He handles the puck extremely well in tight, has a good release, moves well despite much more strength needed. An intriguing asset.”
If the Senators want a big defenceman, they could pivot take Rombach.
“Rombach is a 6’6″, left-shot defender who has immaculate retrieval habits and is able to collect, direct, and transition the puck very quickly. He has massive stopping potential here but with a more limited offensive toolkit.”
The Senators do have Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot and Tyler Kleven slotted on the left side, so that is not a pressing area of need right now.
The organization has continued to emphasize drafting the best available talent over need, but there are no blue-chip forwards in their pipeline. The opportunity to add one now may make more sense, which could lead to a Vansaghi selection.
“Vansaghi is a sizeable, power winger with adequate speed and a love for inflicting pain through the body. He has flashed enough skill to think he could be a unique, middle-six type that teams love in the postseason.”
In consideration of how the Senators ran their first draft with general manager Steve Staios at the helm, Robinson will be keen to watch if one trend continues for the organization.
“I think the obvious takeaway was a focus on size over skill,” said Robinson while reflecting on last year’s picks. “(Carter) Yakemchuk over (Zayne) Parekh and (Zeev) Buium. (Gabriel) Eliasson over Cole Hutson, Andrew Basha, Harrison Brunicke, and Ryder Ritchie.
“Not to say that Yak doesn’t have skill, but the projection clearly left upside on the table and tenfold with Eliasson. I did love the Blake Montgomery selection, though. As far as drawing parallels to this year’s class, we’ll have to see if those decisions are replicated before assuming it’s a mandate and not just a result of how the cookie crumbled in 2024.”
Graeme Nichols
The Hockey News-Ottawa
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