Juan Soto has dominated the first few weeks of the MLB offseason, and he deserves to do so. Excluding Shohei Ohtani, he’s the most highly sought-after free agent since Alex Rodríguez more than 20 years ago.
Like A-Rod, Soto debuted as a teenager. So, he is hitting the open market having just turned 26 years old. That alone makes him a unicorn. Also, he’s had one of the best starts to a career ever.
Among players who had played at least 500 games before turning 26, Soto has the third-highest on-base percentage (.421), is tied for the fifth-most home runs (201), and has the seventh-highest OPS (.953). He’s on pace to be a generational talent and this level of player changing teams is completely intoxicating.
Below you’ll find everything you need to know about Soto’s market and where he might end up.
What sort of contract will Juan Soto get?
Soto will break the proverbial bank this winter. Aaron Judge has the highest average annual value for a position player at $40 million. That feels like a paltry starting point for Soto.
There was plenty of hoopla made over Ohtani’s $700 million deal last offseason, but with all of its deferrals the present-day value wound up around $460 million over 10 years.
Those two deals will be the benchmarks for Soto’s contract. The question is whether or not he and his agent Scott Boras are dead set on trying to beat the public perception of Ohtani’s $700 million figure. That’s more possible than it may seem since Soto is so young and a team could be willing to offer him an unprecedented 15 or so year contract.
Let’s just say 15 years at $45 million per year. That total value would come out to a jaw-dropping $675 million. That feels a bit rich. However, it’s hard to predict the competition of rivals on an open market or any deferrals that might be worked in. This whole situation could easily spiral out of control and the final dollar figure may be staggering.
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Where will Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, and Corbin Burnes sign this offseason?
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Who has Juan Soto met with so far?
Soto made it clear he would be willing to meet with “every single team” mere moments after the World Series ended. That should have made it extra-clear to the Yankees that there would truly be no frontrunner in this race. So, let’s run down who’s met with him so far.
– New York Mets
The Mets have emerged as the de facto frontrunners to sign Soto mostly due to Steve Cohen’s deep pockets. Their payrolls have been at or above $300 million for each of the last three years and crescendoed at $375 million in 2023 after the Mets’ last playoff berth.
Cohen had the highest offer on the table for Yoshinobu Yamamoto last season before the Dodgers matched it and signed away the Japanese star. He’s already flown west to meet with Soto personally and there’s little doubt he will, once again, outbid the competition. That may be all it takes to woo Soto across town.
– New York Yankees
The Yankees presumably have the inside track after Soto spent the last year with them and reached the World Series with them. He seemed to revel in being a Yankee and Aaron Judge’s teammate. Those two were the best offensive duo in the league by far, which is a great selling point.
He’s obviously declined their qualifying offer and reportedly needed assurances the organization was going to keep adding to their roster. Hal Steinbrenner said their initial meeting went well and that his Yankees were “in the mix” for Soto.
– Los Angeles Dodgers
No one wants to see this. It would be like Kevin Durant to the Warriors all over again. Yet, the Dodgers have taken an official meeting with Soto and have about $70 million of room under the final Competitive Balance Tax Threshold with gaping holes at corner outfield, middle infield, and in their rotation. Here’s to not spending all your money in one place, Dodgers.
– Boston Red Sox
Perhaps the Red Sox have learned their lesson after letting Mookie Betts walk out the door and don’t want to let another generational talent slip through their grasp – possibly to their biggest rival – without a fight. They have an elite farm system, enough money to make a serious offer, and took one of the first meetings with Soto. They should be considered a realistic destination.
– Toronto Blue Jays
Oddly enough, it was reported that the Toronto Blue Jays took one of the first meetings with Soto. They’ve struck out on every high profile free agent in the last few years despite being ‘considered’ by most of them. With deep pockets and a hint of desperation, the Blue Jays could find themselves in this race until the bitter end.
Who are the other potential suitors for Juan Soto?
– Philadelphia Phillies
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported Thursday that Soto likes the Phillies, though it’s unclear if their scheduled meeting has actually taken place yet. Either way, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski does not like losing and has been open about his willingness to shake up this roster and spend money after they were embarrassed by the Mets in the NLDS.
– San Francisco Giants
Aaron Judge left the Giants at the altar two offseasons ago and they’re another team that has been involved with plenty of marquee free agents without ever getting over the hump. Soto would be a serious splash for Buster Posey in his first year as the President of Baseball Operations, but they reportedly haven’t set up a meeting yet.
– Chicago Cubs
There has been no indication the Cubs are involved in the Soto Sweepstakes and that should sorely disappoint their fans. They spent the same percentage of their revenue on payroll as the Marlins and Mariners last season. That is not where this franchise should be if they are serious about competing for a championship.
– The Tampa Bay Rays, apparently
Jon Heyman reported a couple of weeks ago that the Rays reached out to Soto’s reps, which elicited immediate giggles from the baseball public. They shouldn’t be considered a serious suitor, and with the concern over the roof at Tropicana Field and their new ballpark maybe not working out after all, they have much bigger issues at the moment.
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