As we head closer to Week 1’s kickoff and fantasy football draft season comes to an end, it dawns on me that there were an inordinate number of quarterbacks who, despite not going high themselves, will decide the fate of some highly-ranked players in fantasy football.
[It’s not too late — join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season]
Here, we will look at five such quarterbacks who were not being taken off the board as fantasy starters but will tell the story of the 2025 season.
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Michael Penix Jr., Falcons
The Falcons have preached nothing but confidence regarding Michael Penix Jr., essentially from the moment he entered the building. If you talk to anyone close to the team or simply read what they’re putting out there, they are more than comfortable with all their eggs in this basket. In fact, the Falcons’ decision-makers aren’t leaving any room for doubt that Penix will be a franchise quarterback for this team.
Even if I lean optimistic on Penix and the Falcons offense in 2025, you have to admit that’s bold. We didn’t even see the guy in the preseason. He’s being treated as a known commodity.
Whether they know it or not, fantasy drafters are extolling something close to the same level of confidence. Atlanta has had two skill-position players go inside the top-20 overall picks in Yahoo drafts all summer in Bijan Robinson and Drake London.
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Say what you want about Kirk Cousins but he was a floor-setter for this unit last season, which ranked 12th in offensive success rate from Weeks 1 to 15 with him as the starter. But that’s the difference between what Cousins was last year and what we’re hoping Penix can be going forward; Cousins set the floor, but we want Penix to help push these guys to a new ceiling.
You need to look only at the areas where Penix unlocked London as a deep-ball receiver on vertical out-breakers to gather some evidence. If Penix can be an improved version of that guy with a bit steadier accuracy, he can be someone who tilts fantasy leagues in favor of drafters who took Robinson and London early and secured the injury discount on Darnell Mooney.
Matthew Stafford, Rams
We spent most of August fretting about Matthew Stafford’s back as he didn’t practice most of this month and spent some time in something called an “Ammortal Chamber,” a healing mobile device that rolled up to Rams camp one day. It was not the most encouraging month of news on the 37-year-old quarterback. And yet, here we are, a few days from Week 1 … and Stafford is set to play.
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To clarify, the concern was never about Stafford’s availability to start the season. We should be more concerned about whether he can make it through all of 2025 and beyond, as the Rams want to make a Super Bowl run.
We’re about to get our first clues regarding the likelihood of that reality. The Rams will face off against a fierce Houston Texans pass rush in Los Angeles’ season opener. At least Stafford will get the help of newly paid blindside protector Alaric Jackson, who is set to play in Week 1 after dealing with blood clots in the summer.
Much rests on the shoulders and arm of Stafford holding up through the course of the season. While the Rams offense could likely survive Jimmy Garoppolo starting at quarterback — we’re maybe talking about a reasonable floor — the ceiling case goes out the window. While Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Kyren Williams wouldn’t be outright miserable options if the Rams hover between 15 and 20 in offensive rankings, they will fall short of expectations.
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J.J. McCarthy, Vikings
The Vikings are handing over the keys to their well-oiled machine and placing them in the hands of J.J. McCarthy. While the second-year quarterback has never taken an NFL snap, he is walking into a great situation.
Minnesota ranks sixth in passing yards per attempt since Kevin O’Connell took over the team in 2022. While Kirk Cousins, a proven veteran, leads the team in passes during this stretch, we’ve also seen Sam Darnold revive his career, and there are multiple Nick Mullens and Joshua Dobbs starts in the sample.
McCarthy would have to be a disaster to really mess this ecosystem up. Even if he’s inexperienced, I’m betting he can be as good as some of the lower-end names in that above cohort right off the bat. We’re also not discussing enough the possibility that he’s just better than Darnold. Let’s not forget that before last year, Darnold had never strung together a month’s worth of quality starts in the NFL. Being better than him isn’t as high a bar to clear as some might imagine it.
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No matter how this ends up working out for McCarthy, there’s no doubt fantasy drafters were ranking and selecting his weapons at a premium. We need him to deliver, which hasn’t been an issue for Vikings quarterbacks previously.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
You can make an argument that Trevor Lawrence exists in no man’s land among this group of five. He’s more proven than the second-year options but doesn’t have the same baked-in credibility that guys like Stafford and the next quarterback have earned.
However, we’ve actually seen Lawrence deliver a season where he ranked 11th in adjusted yards per attempt and fifth in passing success rate. That 2022 season did happen; it hasn’t been some kind of full-on disaster for Lawrence in the NFL like his career has been painted in some circles.
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In reality, Lawrence has had seasons as good as or better than guys like Jared Goff or Baker Mayfield, who also needed a second or third act to get their careers going back in the right direction. There’s no question Lawrence needs to right the ship again but he’s got all the required surroundings to do it in 2025.
If Lawrence is the guy he was in that 2022 season — in a much less innovative offense with less high-ceiling players in the passing game — then there will be some big wins coming out of the 2025 Jacksonville offense.
Jared Goff, Lions
Jared Goff stands out on this list as both a proven player and someone who is perfectly healthy entering the season. However, he’s also dealing with multiple environmental changes in Detroit that will likely put more of the burden on his shoulders to support the playmakers on the team.
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With changes on the interior offensive line and Ben Johnson out of the mix, two of Goff’s bigger security blankets have been removed from the equation. In my view, Goff has grown quite a bit since he was largely viewed as a passenger in Sean McVay’s offense to start his career. He’s taken quite a bit of ownership in shaping what Detroit’s offense feels like and has a great deal of chemistry with almost all of the main players in this attack.
However, just how much growth Goff has undergone from the end of his Rams days to who he is now will be under the microscope in 2025 with Johnson no longer at the controls of this offense. While John Morton has some familiarity with Goff and the Lions players after a stint with the team in 2022, he may not have the same Midas touch that Johnson brought as the play-caller. It would seem nonsensical to dial up the true dropbacks and take out the play-action safeguards built into this unit but we’ve seen new coordinators mess with what wasn’t broken before.
No matter if it works or it doesn’t, more will fall on Goff’s shoulders this season than the previous three years with the Lions. I’m comfortable with him being that type of quarterback but if my faith is misplaced, several of the Lions’ players we’re counting on as fantasy starters will suffer for it.
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