Today we look at the Cubs’ newest rotation member, a flamethrowing righty acquired by trade from the Miami Marlins with tremendous upside.
Edward Cabrera is 6’5”, 217 lbs. That’s a tall skinny drink of water with a buggy whip for an arm. He throws as hard as anyone when he’s on the mound. But he has averaged 95.8 innings per annum so far in his MLB career, and that’s not enough to be the difference-maker he could be. His five years in Miami’s system didn’t produce the kind of numbers you’d want from a TOR type, but the Pitch Lab will get hold of him and we’ll see what they can do.
In 2025 he was 8-7, 3.53, with 150 strikeouts and 48 walks in 137.2 innings, the most he has pitched in his MLB career. His WHIP was 1.23, which is a tad high, but Cabrera tend to put more guys on via the base on balls than the average. Not really unusual for a guy that throws that hard. He also hits a guy or two and will wild pitch on occasion.
With the Cubs’ otherworldly defense behind him and a decent offense, I suspect he could add five or six wins with a full season’s work (175+ innings). He seems to be getting a little more durable — 2025 was his best year in terms of showing up for work.
Former Cubs Mike Krukow, Randy Wells, and current Cub Jameson Taillon are among his best comps according to his Baseball-Reference profile. That’s just in terms of results and not his pitch arsenal or selection. All of those men have had some pretty decent seasons, and if he wants to be a younger, harder-throwing Taillon and has the mental makeup for that kind of consistency and professionalism, I’m right there for it.
I’m sure nobody would be upset if Cabrera amassed more than the 2.8 bWAR (2.0 fWAR) he fashioned last year, and all he really needs to do it is pitch. These Cubs are way better than the Fish are.
I don’t know where Craig Counsell will slot him. My best guess is Boyd, Horton, Imanaga, Taillon, Cabrera, at least until the Cubs know what they have in him, but he could occupy any spot from 2-5. I don’t see Cabrera opening the season as the No. 1 but he could get there given the results we expect.
Most projections have him in Taillon territory, 8-9 wins/losses, 140 or so innings in 25 starts or thereabouts. Some have him as high as 14-15 quality starts. I want to see plenty of this:
Welcome to the Cubs, Edward.
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