2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, Course Preview | Puerto Rico Open Fantasy Golf Picks 2026

2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, Rankings, Stats, Course Preview

Pat Mayo takes a deep dive into tournament and player stats with the Rabbit Hole Tool from Betsperts Golf making his early 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks, highlighting stats that matter inside the model, and previewing the course.

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2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Lineup Lock: Thursday, March 5
Defending Champ: Russell Henley

You may be looking at this field and thinking…

Wouldn’t be wrong.

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For the third time in four weeks the PGA is rolling out an almost identical field. Fortunately, like the Genesis Invitation (And Memorial), there is a cut line this week to trim the field from 72 to the Top 50 and ties after 36-holes. That may seem insignificant, but it provided some solid Friday drama two weeks at Riviera with Scottie Scheffler needing to make a slippery 8-footer on the 18th Hole to see the weekend. He made it. And almost came Top 10.

There are a few changes this incarnation of the PGA’s roaming ensemble for Bay Hill. Primarily, Justin Thomas will be making his season debut following back surgery last last year. He actually returned last Monday at TGL and looked, surprisingly, fine. He smashed two drives with ball speeds over 177mph, which is faster than his average ball speed from the past 18 months. JT says he’s been practicing for month already and the injury really shouldn’t affect the way he swings unlike Will Zalatoris, who had to basically reconstruct a new swing after his back issue so he wouldn’t snap in half from the waist.

Also, with far less press, Sungjae Im is returning from injury too. Sungjae hasn’t played this year at all with a wrist injury and, unlike with Thomas, there hasn’t been coverage at all about his rehab. He was pretty bad last year, so I doubt his first week back to competitive action, against a stacked field, is the proper spot to go ALL IN on Sungjae.

As we saw with Xander Schauffele a year ago (and many players over the seasons), short game — touch and feel — in a competitive tournament is usually the last thing to come back since it cannot be recreated in practice.

Being the qualifiers from last year’s FedEx Cup Top 50, Jordan Spieth and Tony Finau are in on current FedEx Cup points, Alex Noren is Top 30 in the OWGR so he’s earned a trip to Orlando as well.

Chris Kirk, and Billy Horschel are in the field on sponsors exemptions, and another will be added once the final points from the Cognizant Classic shake out. As the final spots in the field will go to the Top 5 in the AON Swing 5 will go to the players who have earned the most FedEx Cup points between the Sony Open, American Express, Farmers Insurance Open, WM Phoenix Open & Cognizant Classic. Oh, who don’t earn so many points to get themselves inside the Aon Next 10… which also gets them in the field. It’s not as complicated as it sounds, there’s just a lot of moving parts. Regardless, Patrick Rodgers and Sahith Theegala should be locks to play through this qualification.

Finally, Texas sophomore Daniel Bennett is in the field after earning the Arnold Palmer Cup exemption. The South African won the 2025 Phil Mickelson Award as the top college player and joins Ludvig Aberg, David Ford, Jackson Koivun, Cole Hammer, and others as amateurs in the API.

2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Key Stats

Strokes Gained: Off The Tee

Mayo’s Key Stat Rankings Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool

2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Course

Average Green Size: 7,500 sq. ft.

Par 3’s (4): Average Distance – 217 yards

Three of them have a bogey rate that is more than double the birdie rate.
Henley: Two birdies on Thursday … one birdie and 11 pars after that

Par 4’s (10): Average Distance – 437 yards

The three toughest holes are all Par 4’s with over a quarter of golfers playing each of them over par
Henley: Three Par 4 bogeys on Thursday … just three the rest of the way

Par 5’s (4): Average Distance – 558 yards

The four easiest holes on property including the layup at #16 (the 4.8% eagle rate nearly tops the bogey rate of 6.4%)
Henley: After a par at #16 on Thursday, he went eagle-birdie-eagle

2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Past Winners

2024: Scottie Scheffler -15
2022: Scottie Scheffler -5
2021: Bryson DeChambeau -11
2019: Francesco Molinari -12

2025: Russell Henley (+4000) beat Collin Morikawa by 1

Finishing positions for those who gained at least a stroke on approach and gained something (anything) with the putter: 1st-3rd-4th-5th-5th-7th-8th-8th–11th-18th

2024: Scottie Scheffler (+650, favorite) beat Wyndham Clark by 5

Five golfers picked up 4+ strokes putting: they finished 1st-2nd-4th-6th-8th
13 of the top 20 finishers for the week lost distance on the field

2023: Kurt Kitayama (+20000) beat Rory McIlroy and Harris English by 1

Three golfers picked up 5+ strokes putting: they finished 1st-2nd-8th
Eight of the top finishers gained putting from 10-15 feet (Scheffler finished T-4: he gained 1.1 strokes from 10-15 feet and lost from 0-5, 5-10, 15-20, and 20-25.

2022: Scottie Scheffler (+2000, fourth on the odds board) beat Viktor Hovland, Billy Horschel, and Tyrell Hatton by 1

Finishing positions of the 10 best putters for the week (starting with the best putter for the week): 7th-2nd-20th-20th-26th-5th-9th-20th-20th-9th
10 of the top 12 finishers gained ground on the Par 3’s for the week

2021: Bryson DeChambeau (+1200, second on the odds board) beat Lee Westwood by 1

Bryson won and was the best OTT golfer for the week, but three of the next six finishers lost ground OTT for the week
Five of the top seven finishers (Bryson included) lost Prox:Total for the week (short irons being the primary cause)

2020: Tyrell Hatton (+5000)

He progressively got worse (68-69-73-74), but so did the conditions. Hatton did enough down the stretch on Sunday by closing with seven consecutive pars
The top three in SG: APP for the week all finished inside the top-10 (Collin Morikawa and Joel Dahmen joined Hatton on that list, with the two of them bleeding over 1.5 strokes with the flat stick)
The top six in ProxFG:200+ all finished with a share of 18th or better (Hatton didn’t excel here, but he and Sungjae Im thrived in the 175-200 bucket, allowing them to cashe top 5’s without much success with the real deep irons)
Note: Matt Every went full Keegan (65 in Round 1 with an 83 in Round 2). Of note, 11 of the top-12 finishers gained on proximity in that 100-125 yard bucket (nine of them lost in either the 175-200 or 200+ range)

2019: Francesco Molinari (+2500)

Molinari fired the round of the tournament on Sunday (64, nine shots better than his Saturday and seven better than Fitzpatrick)
Each of the top nine finishers gained strokes putting from either 20-25 feet or 25+ (Molinari was a plus in both buckets)
13 of the top 14 finishers gained Good Drives on the field (four of them lost in distance and four of them lost fairways)
Six of the top-7 for the week in SG:OTT cashed top-10 paychecks when all was said and done.

2018: Rory McIlroy (+1600)

His 64 on Sunday matched the best of the tournament and was four better than Bryson. Rory was the only golfer in the field that shot 70 or better in all four rounds
Rory and Bryson were the top two at the end of the week and they were the two best in Prox:200+
McIlroy road a red-hot putter (+10 strokes on the field), and four of the top-5 putters for the week finished T7 or better on the final leaderboard.

2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational FIRST ROUND LEADER HISTORY

2025

69: Corey Conners (PM), Keegan Bradley (AM), Shane Lowry (PM), and Christiaan Bezuidenhout (PM)

2024

67: Hideki Matsuyama (AM) and Justin Lower (AM, third group out)

2023

67: Cam Young (AM), Kurt Kitayama (PM), and Chris Kirk (AM)

2022

67: JJ Spaun (AM), Beau Hossler (AM), and Billy Horschel (PM)

2021

66: Corey Conners (PM) and Rory McIlroy (AM)
67: Bryson DeChambeau (AM)

2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Notes

This is your yearly reminder to consult the weather report before submitting lineups or making any wagers. A clear wave stack due to wind may emerge and you’ll want to take advantage of that. It’s more difficult to game this in 2026, though. Since it’s a 72 player event, the tee splits won’t be as pronounced, and if things look really bad at a certain point during the day, they may run split tees to get everyone on the course at the same time for the same conditions.

If the gusts are up, that will dramatically change the type of player you may want to target this week. The wind is up at this course as a default and it may not have as big of an impact as you believe. But then there was 2020. Weekend wind made the course a scoring death trap for the field. Matthew Fitzpatrick (69 in Round 4) was the only player to crack 70 on the weekend. Tyrrell Hatton was the first player since Geoff Ogilvy at the 2006 U.S. Open to fire two rounds over par on a weekend and still win.

Two years after, Scottie Scheffler charged from the pack Saturday when the leaders got dealt treacherous conditions. Rory McIlroy and Francesco Molinari both staged at least six-stroke Sunday comebacks in 2018 and 2019, so no one is ever dead at Bay Hill. This can provide an excellent live betting opportunity if you have the guts to believe in a massive comeback from someone not necessarily showing the form in the moment.

Water ripples in the eye line of almost every shot and sand is ubiquitous (84 bunkers), not to mention that the rough tends to be longer than the opening in Deer Hunter. That wedding scene makes The Neverending Story feel like a pulp novella.

Bay Hill actually plays longer than its 7,466 yards. With the prevalent water and series of doglegs, the holes have more distance to carry than they are actually measured on the scorecard. More so when you consider the average drive is over five yards shorter than the average PGA TOUR event (285 yards to 291 yards). While there are only nine officially listed water hazards, the wetness directly affects those nine holes in an impactful way. Fortunately, the greenside bunkers at Bay Hill are some of the easiest on the PGA TOUR annually, so bailing out to the non-water side of the greens is the preferred option on the longer approaches. And the sand is a better miss most times than the rough.

Players are forced to lay up off the tee to keep dry or set themselves up for a clean look at the green. And they even struggle to do that. Missing into the rough on the far side to take water completely out of play is the common outcome. For years, driving accuracy was higher than TOUR average. Over the past five years that has flipped: 57% at Bay Hill to 61% TOUR average despite the field only taking driver off the tee 66% of the time.

This could be due to the Signature Event affect. Since the field is populated by the very best players on TOUR, they’re willing to sacrifice fairways for extra distance, knowing their iron games are good enough to hack from the cabbage.

Bay Hill sees far more approaches from beyond 200 yards than almost any course which is why the Birdie or Better rate from the long grass is only about 10%. Of note: All four Par 3s fall in approach bucket, which skews the numbers a tad.

Stats, Data, and Tools Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool at Betsperts Golf

The risk/reward factor still looms — like on the Par 5 sixth hole. You can take on the water to save some distance (RIP Bryson DeChambeau in this event) and try to get on in two, or end up carding an 18 like John Daly in 1998. Since 1983, No. 6 has produced 23 scores in the double-digits. That’s the most on PGA TOUR by a large margin.

Now, putting inside 10-feet is the one place where Bay Hill is actually not so bad. In 2024, the field made almost 90% of its putt from inside 10-feet, and over the past five years has been slightly easier to make putts in that range. It’s likely why so many statistically poor putters have spike gains at Bay Hill.

With the wind playing a factor, there has been an inordinate amount of international players who’ve succeeded over the years at Bay Hill. I theorized it would be lower in 2024, now that the API is a signature event featuring all the best PGA players, and that ended up being the case. Lowry (3rd), Grillo (T8), and Ben An (T8) were the only international players inside the Top 10. That shifted back last season with Corey Conners, Sepp Straka, Shane Lowry, Justin Rose, Ben An, and Jason Day all sneaking into the Top 10. By in large, gaining strokes off the tee with accuracy really won out in 2025.

Still, Strokes Gained: Approach has been over two times as influential on the Top 5 finishers as SG: Off The Tee, and three times more impactful than SG: Around The Green. The gap between each of the SG stats shrinks if expanded to the Top 20 finishers. Looking at winners only, SG: APP is 2.7 times more impactful than SG: OTT and 4.2 times against SG: ATG. Yes, SG: APP is always the most important stat to look at, however it tends to be more pronounced this week with so many approaches coming from beyond 200 yards.

Much of that has to do with the Par 3s, as they average over 215 yards in length. Rory McIlory, Nicolai Hojgaard, Collin Morikawa, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Ryan Gerard have been the best players from Par 3s from this range over the past 18 months.

The greens at Bay Hill have annually played extremely quick in comparison to most courses. The players with the most Strokes Gained: Putting per round on fast greens per round over their past year rounds are: Jake Knapp, Sam Burns, Denny McCarthy, Ben Griffin, Harry Hall, and Matt Fitzpatrick.

Marc Leishman and Jason Day have won both at Bay Hill and Torrey Pines in the past decade. Other Farmers champs Harris English, Justin Rose, Luke List and Max Homa have multiple Top 10 results at Bay Hill as well. Tiger Woods historically dominates both courses. That’s everywhere but Riviera, though.

2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

Matt Fitzpatrick — Fitz’ driving and irons are at an all time peak. He’s never been on a better ball striking run in his career. Problem is, it perfectly coincided with an awful putting stretch. It’s not so much that he’s been bad all the time in 2026, it’s just when it has gone wrong, it’s gone really wrong. In his past 13 rounds, Fitzpatrick has lost strokes putting to the field eight times. Not great, also not the worst. Should be manageable, right? NOPE. He’s lost more than a stroke in five of the past six rounds when he’s gone negative, topped off with dropping a laughable -5.75 SG: PUTT over the week at Riviera. Maybe there is something broken with his putting stroke. Or maybe it’s a small sample size or a struggle with Poa Annua. Regardless, I’m betting on a return to regular levels on the greens at Bay Hill. An event Fitzpatrick has played each of the past 10 years and never finished in the negative on these fast, Bermuda greens.

Alex Noren — It’s been a mixed bag for Noren in 2026 after going nuclear in Europe after the PGA regular season ended. There’s been little things pointing up, though. He’s gotten better in each start, despite the field strength getting stronger every time. Additionally, he’s spiked with his irons three times in his past seven rounds, gaining at least one stroke on the field on approach. The short game remains solid and his proximity from the rough from 150+ yards is the best in the field. If Noren can clean up driver he can contend if conditions play tough.

2026 Puerto Rico Open

Course: Grand Reserve Golf Club (Coco Beach)
12 Holes with Water in Play

Winners

2025: Karl Villips -26 (By 3 over Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen)
2024: Brice Garnett -19 (Playoff over Erik Barnes)
2023: Nico Echavarria -21 (By 2 over Akshay Bhatia)
2022: Ryan Brehm -20 (By 6 over Max McGreevy)
2021: Branden Grace -19 (1 over Jhonny Vegas)
2020: Viktor Hovland -20 (By 1 over Josh Teater)

Picks

My early leans are looking at Michael Brennan, Steven Fisk, and Zach Bauchou. But a deeper dive into the Betsperts LIVE leaderboard reveals some interesting deeper options from players who struck the ball great at the Cognizant Classic but just couldn’t putt. The paspalum greens at Grand Reserve are quite slow and should be easier.

Stats, Data, and Tools Powered by the Rabbit Hole Tool at Betsperts Golf

There are no historic shotlink data by shot at the PRO, but we do have SG: TOTAL by round available. Here are the players averaging the most strokes per rounds vs the field over the past five years. NOTE: Most of these players only have four rounds.

If you put in a mimimum of 8 rounds, you get some the other names making cameos.

Finally, if you’re looking to go more macro and look at all Paspalum courses, here are the leaders in SG: TOTAL per round over the past two years (Minimum 12 rounds)