No NFL team had a better turn around from 2023 to 2024 than the Washington Commanders. Going from a 4-13 record and having the number two overall draft pick (Jayden Daniels), to 12-5 and a trip all the way to the NFC Championship game is an elite jump. Look no further than the coach-quarterback duo of Dan Quinn and rising year-two quarterback Daniels. The Commanders found several ways to win nine (including playoffs) one score games which is something you have to do in the NFL to separate yourself from teams.
Despite going deep into the playoffs, the Commanders rightfully attacked the offseason to improve in areas where they lacked. Their main focus was building more around their star quarterback by adding players like Laremy Tunsil, Deebo Samuel and Josh Conerly on the offensive side of the ball. To improve on their 18th ranked scoring defense, they added depth on the defensive line and defensive backfield with players like Von Miller and Will Harris. The Commanders should be in the mix again.
2024 Washington Commanders Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 28.5 (5th)
Total yards per game: 369.6 (7th)
Plays per game: 64.8 (5th)
Dropbacks per game: 41.2 (11th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.21 (4th)
Rush attempts per game: 30.9 (5th)
Rush EPA per play: 0.03 (4th)
Coaching Staff
Over the course of his career, Dan Quinn has proven to be the ultimate players’ coach who has a knack of getting the best out of his players. He’s recently done so in Atlanta, Dallas (as a defensive coordinator) and now in Washington as the Commanders are coming off a season in which they shocked the world finishing in the NFC title game. How will the encore go? Well, he and the Commanders’ have done everything in their power this offseason to make sure they stay afloat in a competitive NFC East. One thing’s for certain, it starts with No. 5 at quarterback and he hit the jackpot there.
Speaking of “No. 5”, the guy who will work with him the most will once again be Kliff Kingsbury who guided the Commanders’ offense to being one of the best in the NFL in 2024. He’ll continue to prioritize the spread/air raid offense with a mix of RPO’s to keep defenses off balance. The Commanders will once again have one of the more fantasy-rich offenses in the NFL due to Kingsbury’s uptempo style of play. An offensive mind like Kingsbury will always find ways to throw new wrinkles and evolve his scheme, but don’t expect him to move away from the main thing.
Passing Game
QB: Jayden Daniels, Marcus Mariota
WR: Terry McLaurin, K.J. Osborn
WR: Deebo Samuel, Jaylin Lane
WR: Noah Brown, Luke McCaffrey
TE: Zach Ertz, Ben Sinnott, John Bates
Jayden Daniels was QB4 in terms of fantasy points per game last season. Many are calling for some type of “regression” since he had such a great rookie season, but is throwing for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns (with nine interceptions) really much of a ceiling? Eh I don’t know about that one, I guess maybe if you add in the fact that he added another 891 yards and six touchdowns on ground. In this era of football though (with the above mentioned uptempo style offense), why can’t those numbers be duplicated by an ascending talent? There’s only two guys in drafting over Daniels and their names are Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Not only will Daniels be better, but the offense will be better around him.
This starts with the addition of Deebo Samuel who will operate as their WR2 behind Terry McLaurin. Samuel will help out the offense in many ways starting with the fact that he can help alleviate attention off of McLaurin. He’ll be someone Daniels can hit quickly in short areas of the field to use his RAC ability. While Samuel only finished as WR45 in 2024, he, along with his 49ers’ teammates suffered a number of injuries. He should be drafted as a WR3 or WR4 on your fantasy teams. McLaurin on the other hand enjoyed his best season from touchdown standpoint hauling in 13 which was by far the best of his career. He ended last season as WR15 which was also the best of his career. With Deebo now on the fold, don’t be shocked if McLaurin is second on the team in receptions yet still leading the team in receiving yards, touchdowns and fantasy points. Behind those two Noah Brown would get first dibs as the team’s WR3, but don’t count out rookie Jaylin Lane and second-year Luke McCaffrey.
What we expected last season from the Commanders’ tight ends isn’t what we got. Ben Sinnott came in (and still is to be honest) last season as a versatile rookie tight end who could be used in a variety of ways. His season ended with a 5-28-1 stat line, but there is still hope. What we got was a resurgence from 34-year old, three-time Pro Bowler Zach Ertz who had his best season since 2021 (66-654-7). This made him the TE11 in fantasy last season and he’ll likely be drafted in this range this season so long as he’s attached to the Commanders’ offense.
Bills, Commanders must take advantage of schedules
The FFHH crew break down the 2025 schedules for the Washington Commanders and Buffalo Bills, explaining why both teams can make runs given their strong rosters and schedule layout.
Running Game
RB: Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler, Jeremy McNichols, Jacory Croskey-Merritt
OL (L-R): Laremy Tunsil, Brandon Coleman, Tyler Biadasz, Sam Cosmi, Josh Conerly
I would’ve loved to have seen the Commanders attack the running back position much earlier in the draft with a true game breaker as it would help the offense get closer to its ceiling. The Brian Robinson-Austin Ekeler duo was serviceable as last season RB24 and RB30 respectively. Jeremy McNichols also filled in nicely when called upon. What you see is what you get with this group. Robinson will continue to be the offenses battering ram who gets most of the carries near the goal line (59.5% of WAS carries inside the 5 last season) and short yardage situations, while Ekler be their main pass-catcher out of the backfield (53.8% of WAS RB receptions last season). 24-year-old rookie, Jacory Croskey-Merritt is the obvious unknown in terms of how he can potentially fit in the offense. He’s certainly the quickest and most explosive of this running back group (4.45 in 40-yard dash and 41 ½ inch vertical) and it’s not an elite one he’ll have to contend with. He brings skills that the other Commanders’ backs lack so if he can find his footing in camp, perhaps he can integrate himself into this committee.
Another part of why I don’t like all of the Commander regression talk is because they attacked their offensive line needs with a vengeance. Trading for Laremy Tunsil while still at the top of his game is big for Daniels and this offense. Coming back in the draft and securing one of the better tackles in Josh Conerly in the first round tells you everything you need to know about how they felt about their line. This unit is now deeper with a good blend of young guys and veterans to help his Commanders’ offense once again play at a top eight level.
2025 Washington Commanders Win Total
Win Total (O/U 9.5)
There’s a lot of talk of “regression” when it comes to the Commanders heading into 2025. To me it’s a strawman conversation and easy to have when you’re talking about a team who went from four wins (in 2023) to 12 and ended up in the NFC Championship game. In that case anything less than reaching that point would technically be “regression”, but let’s be real, the Commanders will be in the mix and that doesn’t mean they have to duplicate exactly what they did last season. In fact, I feel like this offseason the Commanders moved like a team who was still hungry acquiring players like Deebo Samuel, Laremy Tunsil and drafting Josh Conerly in the first round. They also made efforts to improve their 13th ranked defense. This isn’t some fluke team, they went and beat two quality teams (Buccaneers and Lions) on the road in the playoffs. As long as Jayden Daniels is driving the bus, this team will have a shot, give me the over.
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