2025 NCAA Tournament: Which First Four team has the best chance to make a deep March Madness run?

Selection Sunday was full of surprises, arguably none bigger than North Carolina making the field. The Tar Heels own impressive metrics but an absolute eyesore of a Quad 1 record (1-12), the latest of those losses a heartbreaker to shorthanded Duke in the ACC Tournament semifinals.

There are plenty of arguments for West Virginia (6-10 in Quad 1) or Indiana (wins over Michigan State and Purdue), but that’s life on the bubble. If you want to argue in favor of the Tar Heels, you can look at their 8-0 record in Quad 2 games, their close calls against the nation’s best and their strong finish to the season. 

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With their current starting lineup — Elliot Cadeau, RJ Davis, Drake Powell, Jae’Lyn Withers and Ven-Allen Lubin — they are 7-1 and a top-20 team nationally according to Bart Torvik, whose advanced stats site appeared on selection committee team sheets for the first time this year.

The Tar Heels spent Selection Sunday sweating it out, but they are a perfect encapsulation of the First Four team. And, in turn, the First Four has turned into a perfect addition to March Madness. Not only do we, the viewer, get more tournament basketball, but these rounds often serve as the launching point for a few significant runs. Since the First Four began in 2011, 13 of its teams have won multiple games:

Only once — 2019 — has the First Four failed to produce a team that wins multiple games. The First Four has also sent two teams to the Final Four. For reference, only three No. 5 seeds have made the Final Four over the same span. It’s nearly as likely that a play-in team makes the national semifinal as a team the committee considered top-20 nationally does.

Texas, San Diego State and Xavier join North Carolina in this year’s First Four in Dayton. History suggests one of them will win another game after leaving, too. Knowing the trends is half the battle when picking your bracket. Taking advantage is the other half. Which of those four will it be? Here’s the ranking of the most likely candidates.

1. Texas

Picking Texas here is an exercise of trusting a team that may not deserve it. Depending on which Longhorn games you watched this season, them topping this list may make perfect sense … or it may make you wonder if you and I live on the same planet.

But these are the sort of bets that can work wonders in March. In fact, they already have: Texas beat Vanderbilt and Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament just to make it off the bubble. Of course, it was only in that tenuous position because it lost seven of its last nine regular-season games, including a 15-point loss to South Carolina, one of two SEC teams that missed the NCAA Tournament.

But Texas has a lot to like. The Longhorns don’t turn the ball over. They have a ton of experience, and not just any experience: tournament experience. Tramon Mark, Kadin Shedrick and Arthur Kaluma have played in several March Madness games.

And where they don’t have experience, they have a star: Tre Johnson is a likely lottery pick who can get as hot as anyone. In Texas’ last four wins — the two mentioned plus ones over Mississippi State and Kentucky — he’s averaged 23.5 points and 3.5 3-pointers. The highs are very much enough to make you believe.

The First Four matchup against Xavier is not easy, but Texas has an advantage in transition offense, an area where the Longhorns excel and the Musketeers’ defending is iffy. And if Texas does advance, it would face an Illinois team that, like Texas, can be explosive offensively but maddeningly inconsistent overall. That’s a recipe for an upset.

2. Xavier

If you’re looking for a team from this bunch that has one elite trait, it’s Xavier, and that trait is a big one: shooting. The Musketeers shoot 39% from 3 (sixth in D-I), 79% from the free-throw line (eighth) and are terrific in transition offensively. It’s been lovely to see Zach Freemantle healthy. Xavier won seven straight before dropping a thriller to Marquette in the Big East Tournament, and Freemantle is averaging 21.8 points on 67% shooting in March.

He’s one third of a very dangerous trio alongside guards Ryan Conwell and Dayvion McKnight. Conwell scored 38 points in the loss to Marquette and has scored at least 20 points in five straight games. One of the nation’s most efficient shooters, Conwell has great chemistry with Freemantle and tremendous range. McKnight, meanwhile, is the on-ball guard, a willing passer who gets to the line a ton.

Those last two attributes could pay major dividends. Xavier led the Big East in free-throw rate and was fourth in the nation in assist rate. Texas, meanwhile, allowed the highest free-throw rate in SEC play. Xavier is favored against Texas, but this list isn’t for who will win its First Four game. It’s for who can win multiple games, and Texas has a better track record of beating top teams (7-10 in Quad 1 vs. Xavier’s 1-9).

3. North Carolina

I know, I know. The biggest issue with the Tar Heels is they haven’t beaten anyone. They have one win over an at-large team, and that was back in December, over UCLA by two.

But the lineup change stuff is real. Of North Carolina’s seven wins during that span, six are by double figures, and the Tar Heels are shooting a scorching hot 42% from 3. That includes 48% from Ian Jackson, 45% from Withers and 43% from Davis. Even Cadeau, who teams sag off of, has hit 8 of 18 (44%).

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Plus, while that 1-12 Quad 1 record is unsightly, the reason the Tar Heels’ metrics remained (reasonably) high is because they were close. They lost to Kansas and Michigan State by three and to Florida by six.

Davis was part of North Carolina’s run from a No. 8 seed to national runner-up in 2022. Perhaps he can be the leader of another similar run in his final year. The Tar Heels boast wing length, backcourt experience, NBA upside and a strong recent run of play. It took a while for them to round into form, but they have been very good of late, even in the context of a watered-down ACC.

Should they advance, the Tar Heels would face Ole Miss. The Rebels are a really talented, experienced and skilled bunch, but not one without their own stops and starts.

4. San Diego State

Magoon Gwath was an unheralded recruit in 2023 who redshirted last season, so you’re excused if you were caught off guard by him exploding onto the scene this year. After averaging 10.3 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.3 blocks per game in Mountain West play, he earned conference freshman of the year and defensive player of the year.

Gwaith has missed the last five with a knee injury but is expected to be available to play in the NCAA Tournament, coach Brian Dutcher said. How much and how well Gwath plays could be an X-factor. He is excellent around the rim and has a nice little jumper, and the Aztecs desperately need that. They rank 111th nationally in offensive efficiency, worst of any at-large selection, and scored just 52 points against Boise State in their conference tournament opener.

But don’t count them out quite yet. Dutcher has led plenty of deep tournament runs thanks to a terrific defense, and these Aztecs are no different at No. 13 nationally in defensive efficiency. Plus, they have the credentials with wins over Houston, Creighton and UC San Diego in non-conference action.

Still, the Aztecs haven’t won away from home against a top-75 KenPom team since Jan. 4, and the offensive limitations just don’t seem conducive to a March run.