A historically dominant season from the SEC could mean as many as 14 teams end up making the field of 68 in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, and two of those teams are projected No. 1 seeds.
No. 1 overall should be Auburn, which despite an exit from the SEC Tournament semifinals on Saturday, has a body of work that simply cannot be matched. Florida is the other projected No. 1 seed from the SEC entering Sunday, according to Jerry Palm’s most recent Bracketology, though Tennessee could make a late case for that final spot on the top line if it beats the Gators in the SEC Tournament championship on Sunday.
Duke and Houston, both of which won their respective conference tournaments, seem like 1-seed locks.
How will the top line look when the 2025 March Madness bracket is revealed? We will find out when the full field of 68 is revealed Sunday at 6 p.m. ET on the 2025 NCAA Tournament Selection Show live on CBS.
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Keep on reading for CBS Sports Bracketology expert Jerry Palm’s top seed projections along with a breakdown of how our college basketball experts would vote if they were members of the committee.
NCAA Tournament Bracketology projection
Here’s how Palm has projected the top four seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Check out his complete Bracketology here.
NCAA Tournament expert picks
Here’s how our college basketball staff would vote if they were on the selection committee.
Gary Parrish: It’s weird to have a No. 1 overall seed entering the NCAA Tournament having lost three of four games — but that’s where we’re likely headed. Simply put, Auburn still has the sport’s best résumé. So if the selection committee wants to reward season-long accomplishments, Adam Zucker will tell us that the Tigers are the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament shortly after the Selection Show begins at 6 pm ET on CBS. Duke and Houston have also locked-up No. 1 seeds, I think. And though the fourth No. 1 seed might come down to the winner of Florida-Tennessee on Sunday, right now, I’d lean toward Todd Golden’s Gators. They have a better body of work now. And they’re also favored to win the SEC Tournament.
Matt Norlander: I think there’s a non-zero chance Duke winds up with the No. 1 overall seed because it won a head-to-head with Auburn (with Duke having the benefit of getting that game on its home floor), it has two fewer losses than Auburn, and it’s the easy No. 1 in all predictive metrics. There is a case for Duke. But Auburn’s schedule, overall, was more difficult and it accrued so many higher-end wins. My guess is the Tigers narrowly beat out Duke for the top spot. Houston at 3 is a lock and, to me, Florida should be the final 1-seed. I think the Gators beat the Vols, which ends the discussion, but even with a Tennessee win, Florida would have fewer losses, a better Quad 1/2 record and a 14-3 road/neutral record vs. Tennessee’s 11-5 mark. Plus, the SEC final has historically meant … nothing. Gators will be the 1 in the West.
Kyle Boone: The top three seeds — Auburn, Duke and Houston — are what I would consider to be No. 1 seed locks, and probably in that order. The fourth team listed (Florida), which plays Sunday in the SEC Tournament championship game, could throw a wrench into that. For now, the Gators are the fourth and final No. 1 seed, but a win over Tennessee would be enough résumé ammo to launch them past Houston. There’s still some final results that need settling, and how the committee orders the No. 1 seeds will be a question. But Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida are the four teams I think are worthy of No. 1 seeds regardless of Sunday’s SEC title game.
David Cobb: The final No. 1 seed should go to the winner of the SEC Tournament title game showdown between Florida and Tennessee. Entering the day, the Gators get the nod since they are sitting as a projected No. 1 seed in Jerry Palm’s Bracketology. But if the Volunteers take down Florida, they should be a No. 1 seed for the first time in program history. A Tennessee win would mean both teams have 66.7% winning percentages in Quad 1 games and be unbeaten in all other contests. But the winner would own a 2-1 edge in the head-to-head series. While head-to-head results aren’t typically a major consideration, it would be an appropriate way to separate two teams with similarly great résumés. Though Auburn didn’t win the SEC Tournament, it stands above the field with a whopping 16 Quad 1 victories after navigating arguably the toughest conference in college basketball history as the outright champion. That season-long body of work should earn the Tigers the No. 1 overall seed.
How will NCAA Tournament selection committee handle seeding as many as 12, 13 or 14 teams from the SEC?
Matt Norlander
Chip Patterson: If Tennessee knocks off Florida in the SEC Tournament championship game one day after taking down the No. 1 overall seed in Auburn and still finds itself along the 2-seed line, it will only give more fuel to the fire for those who believe that the selection committee mostly locks in its bracket prior to the start of Sunday’s conference championship games. Tennessee and Florida have competitive résumés and split the regular-season series, each winning on their home floor by lopsided margins, so I think whoever wins the rubber match should have the honor of being the fourth No. 1. That said, I don’t think Sunday’s result will impact much, and since Florida carried a slight edge in NET, KPI, Strength of Record, Wins Above Bubble, BPI and KenPom, that edge will remain in the final seeding list.
Isaac Trotter: Selection Sunday will offer plenty of intrigue, but the No. 1 seeds shouldn’t be much of a challenge. Losing two games to national championship contenders like Alabama and Tennessee shouldn’t do anything to bludgeon Auburn’s case for the top overall seed. It remains a clear No. 1 in all the résumé metrics. Since December 1, Duke and Houston have lost a combined two games. Yeah, they are going to be No. 1 seeds. Oh, and Florida might be the most dangerous team out there. These are the best four teams in the country right now, and they have the best four résumés, to boot.
Cameron Salerno: The committee has an easy job slotting the first three No. 1 seeds. Auburn should be the No. 1 overall seed in the bracket because its résumé speaks for itself. The Tigers went 16-5 against Quad 1 opponents, the best record by far among all teams. After that, Duke and Houston should go 2-3. I would go with Florida for the final No. 1 seed. UF coach Todd Golden said after his team’s win over Alabama that the Gators should be the final No. 1 seed no matter what happens against Tennessee on Sunday. I disagree with that sentiment, but if the Gators take care of business, there won’t be a debate. If Tennessee wins the SEC crown, then it should get the final No. 1 seed.
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