2025 March Madness predictions: NCAA bracket expert picks against the spread, odds in Thursday’s Round 1 games

The 2025 NCAA Tournament begins its first day of wall-to-wall action on Thursday with first round games from all four regions. Upsets, buzzer beaters and thrilling highlights will fill our day soon, and if your bracket is set to be busted early there’s always chances to get back in the action with some best bets. 

On a day loaded with action from the first tip-off between No. 8 Louisville and No. 9 Creighton at 12:15 p.m. ET on CBS to the nightcap between No. 3 Texas Tech and No. 14 UNC Wilmington at 10:10 p.m. ET on TruTV, they’re plenty to choose from when it comes to expert picks. We’ve crunched the numbers, broken down the matchups and found our five favorite bets of the day. They include a couple of underdogs capable of advancing in the bracket, a fan-forward rooting angle for points in an early game and riding a conference tournament champion to keep the momentum going into the Big Dance. 

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Odds via SportsLine consensus | All times Eastern 

(3) Wisconsin vs. (14) Montana 

1:30 p.m. on TNT | March Madness Live 

One line of thinking might be to expect a slow start and lower scoring in the early tip out of Denver, but that would ignore the type of teams involved and how they match up against each other. Wisconsin should be able pick its number against a Montana team that was already middling defensively in Big Sky play and faces a big jump up in competition against this new edition of the Badgers. Since Montana’s best chance to spring an upset is to try and get its offense going — something that’s very possible as the Grizzlies have a couple of strong shooters that can space the floor — I think we see a higher scoring affair. The over cashed at a 61% rate in road or neutral situations for both teams this year, and I think we get another here on Thursday. Pick: Over 151.5 

(5) Clemson vs. (12) McNeese 

3:15 p.m. on TruTV | March Madness Live 

There’s a lot of talk about the future of McNeese coach Will Wade now that it’s been reported he’s heading to NC State once the Cowboys’ season is over, and it’s overshadowed another huge aspect of this game. Clemson losing veteran guard Dillon Hunter to a hand injury takes away someone who Brad Brownell called a “glue guy” for this team. Hunter will be missed when Clemson needs veteran experience at the guard position to break through McNeese’s pressure, and while I do expect the Tigers to advance this is too many points against a Cowboys team that covered the spread against both Alabama and Mississippi State in non-conference play. Pick: McNeese +7.5   

(8) Gonzaga vs. (9) Georgia 

4:35 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live 

Gonzaga has thrown together lots of different lineups through the season as Mark Few tries to push the right buttons for a team that has not quite found that elite gear we’ve come to expect from this program. As a whole the defensive profile wasn’t great for the Zags, and though they showed the ability to flip a switch (like in the conference title game win against Saint Mary’s) it’s going to be tough to limit Georgia’s size advantage inside with 6-11 breakout freshman Asa Newell. The Bulldogs’ ability to get extra shots with offensive rebounding is how they keep this game close against the high offensive ceiling of Gonzaga, and since an upset would not be a huge shock I love taking the multi-possession spread. Pick: Georgia +6.5 

(4) Texas A&M vs. (13) Yale 

7:15 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live 

Another underdog play here on a team that I would be surprised to see as an outright winner. Texas A&M is not a great shooting team but has overcome those deficiencies all year by being one of the best rebounding teams in the country. Unfortunately that advantage is not as prevalent, at least on paper, against a Yale team that packs it in defensively and does a pretty good job of cleaning up on the glass at both ends. If Wade Taylor IV shoots the Aggies into the second round by getting hot from deep we’ll take it, but odds are the team that’s 31.1% on the season from behind the arc won’t be able to run away from a Yale team that has multiple starters back from the team that knocked off Auburn in the first round last season. Pick: Yale +7.5 

(5) Michigan vs. (12) UC San Diego 

10 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live 

UC San Diego has become a trendy upset pick in the First Round and potential bracket buster should the Tritons get past Michigan, but I think Thursday’s late night slate will include Dusty May calling “midnight” on any Cinderella hopes. Michigan has an advantage with its size inside, and with a couple of days to scout and prep I’m counting on May to have a good game plan defensively for UCSD’s versatile offense. If Michigan guard Tre Donaldson can hold his own against Big West Defensive Player of the Year Hayden Gray, the Big Ten Tournament champs should be able to keep their momentum from Indianapolis rolling. Pick: Michigan ML -146

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