2025 Big 12 football schedule breakdown: Predicting the first loss for all 16 conference teams

Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark has all but guaranteed multiple playoff bids from his conference during the 2025 season. And now, it’s up to the half-dozen or so teams capable of being in the mix to show it on the field.

Following Arizona State’s debut run to a playoff bid last fall and Texas Tech’s extremely loud offseason with roster enhancements, this could be the year the Big 12 flexes a couple true contenders near the top of the national rankings if the league’s able to escape a few notable nonconference showdowns early.

We’ve picked through every team’s schedule and projected the first loss for each. Sorry, Big 12 faithful — we’re not expecting any unbeaten entries in the league championship game in December. These predictions coincide with our post-spring bowl projections ahead of the 2025 campaign and how we see it all shaking out.

First loss: Kansas State, Sept. 12

These programs met for the first time since 1978 last season in a game that was never competitive. Kansas State owned the line of scrimmage during a 24-point victory which was the first of six losses by multiple scores for Arizona in Big 12 play. This one should be more competitive this time around, but Kansas State is ranked for a reason and is going to be a tough out near the top of the league.

Arizona State Sun Devils

First loss: at Mississippi State, Sept. 6

College football’s most shocking upset in September may happen in Starkville during Week 2. Beating an SEC opponent in a true road setting is not an easy task and buried within Arizona State’s impressive run to the playoff last fall was a comeback win over Mississippi State early that really seemed to take the wind out of the sails for the Bulldogs under first-year coach Jeff Lebby. The Sun Devils are a legitimate league title contender again with Sam Leavitt under center, but they may have to get there after overcoming a shocking nonconference loss.

First loss: Auburn, Aug. 29

Dave Aranda’s team is a slight favorite in the opener against Hugh Freeze’s Tigers, much of that due to 13 returning starters led by quarterback Sawyer Robertson. Only five of those veterans are back on defense, however, which provides Auburn with confidence on the road given its notable portal additions this offseason. We’re expecting a ton of points in Waco with the team garnering the last possession of the contest likely winning.

First loss: at Arizona, Oct. 11

Graced with one of the most favorable schedules in the Big 12 this season, BYU should coast through the first quarter of the campaign without much worry. That said, there are a couple potential “upset” spots before the Big 12 slate kicks into high gear against Utah in mid-October. Looking ahead as a nationally-ranked unbeaten before that bout with the Utes is going to be fatal for the Cougars.

First loss: Nebraska (in Kansas City), Aug. 28

If some of the murmurings emerging from Nebraska this offseason are factual, the Huskers have a great shot at being 3-0 with Michigan coming to Lincoln later in September. Dylan Raiola is back with new OC Dana Holgorsen calling the shots. For the Bearcats, defensive tackle Dontay Corleone is one of three returning starters on that side of the football that may have a long evening at Arrowhead Stadium if Nebraska’s additions on offense show out.

First loss: Georgia Tech, Aug. 29

Unfortunately for the Big 12, opening weekend is going to be one to forget it seems against other Power Four competition. Deion Sanders and the Buffaloes tackle a veteran-laded Yellow Jackets team intent on winning at the line of scrimmage with a balanced attacked. Colorado will be breaking in a new signal caller in the post-Shedeur Sanders era and doesn’t have the leadership of Travis Hunter, either. While bowl eligibility is likely for Colorado, the season could start a bit rocky.

First loss: Texas Tech, Oct. 4

You’re looking at one of the Big 12’s most-improved teams in 2025, at least it’ll appear that way for Willie Fritz’s program until Texas Tech arrives in October with its best roster in years. After consecutive 4-8 seasons, Cougars fans will remain excited after a 4-1 start despite the setback to the Red Raiders.

First loss: at TCU, Nov. 8

The Cyclones should be favored in their first eight games prior to facing off with Arizona State in a rematch of last year’s league title game on Nov. 1. And if Matt Campbell’s team beats the Sun Devils to move to 9-0, they’re almost a lock to get back to the Big 12 Championship Game unless they capsize over the final stretch. The Horned Frogs scored 62 points on Cyclones the last time these teams faced off in Fort Worth in 2022.

First loss: at Missouri, Sept. 6

If you’ve glanced at Missouri’s schedule this season, you quickly noticed another gift from the SEC office for Eli Drinkwitz. Somehow, the Tigers open with six consecutive home games with this one against Kansas being the third-toughest behind Alabama and South Carolina. Those close to the Jayhawks program expect to go into Missouri and win, but the Tigers’ roster looks slightly more talented this season. Missouri leads the all-time rivalry series with Kansas, 56-55-9.

Kansas State Wildcats

First loss: Iowa State (Dublin, Ireland), Aug. 23

Don’t panic, Kansas State fans. A season-opening loss to the Cyclones across the pond will not torpedo what should be a strong season for the Wildcats. It will, however, make the first few Big 12 contests that come after this one fall under the must-win category. We’re expecting this game to be one of three this fall for the Wildcats against top 25 opponents. Win the other two and Chris Klieman’s team could be heading to the league title game.

First loss: at Oregon, Sept. 6

This is a nightmare scenario for Mike Gundy, breaking in a new quarterback with his first Power Four start coming at the loud and boisterous Autzen Stadium. Reigning Big Ten champion Oregon is a national title threat under Dan Lanning and will be equipped with a pass rush far superior to most the Cowboys will see this season in the Big 12.

TCU Horned Frogs

First loss: SMU, Sept. 20

Expect several marquee wins for the Horned Frogs this season, including the opener at North Carolina to spoil Bill Belichick’s debut. But after dominating this series against SMU over a 10-year stretch, three of the last five have been won by the Mustangs including a pair of matchups in Fort Worth. If TCU wins this one, Sonny Dykes’ team will have loads of confidence heading to Arizona State the following weekend.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

First loss: at Arizona State, Oct. 18

No team in college football allocated more resources to talent acquisition this offseason than the Red Raiders. That means Texas Tech is in College Football Playoff-or-bust mode under Joey McGuire, lofty expectations considering the program’s last 11-win season came in 2008 under the late Mike Leach. A 6-0 start to the 2025 campaign would mean the Red Raiders are in the thick of the discussion with the first playoff rankings set to debut a few weeks later.

First loss: at Kansas State, Sept. 27

Three wins for Scott Frost before opening conference action would be a momentum-booster for the Knights. One of those would include a projected victory over Belichick’s Tar Heels before UCF is humbled a bit by the Wildcats away from Orlando. It’ll be interesting to see how Frost’s team performs on the road this season considering most of their toughest games involve flights out of Florida.

Utah Utes

First loss: Texas Tech, Sept. 20

One of the most polarizing teams in the Big 12, many are the under impression Utah’s step back under Kyle Whittingham last fall was a minor blip during an otherwise brilliant tenure. He’s earned the benefit of the doubt as a successful coach. And after completely overhauling his program’s offensive scheme this fall with a new quarterback and OC, perhaps Whittingham’s group should be getting more love than they are this summer.

First loss: Pittsburgh, Sept. 13

This one’s admittedly a toss-up. Rich Rodriguez gets the Panthers in Morgantown with a chance to move to 3-0 on the season in his return to West Virginia. We’re trusting the firepower Pitt returns on defense here with a couple future early-round picks just a bit more than what the Mountaineers will be working with offensively.